470
FXUS01 KWBC 110724
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
323 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2025
VALID 12Z FRI JUL 11 2025 - 12Z SUN JUL 13 2025
...WIDESPREAD STORMS WITH THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE
WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE MIDWEST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
...RISK OF FLASH FLOODING RETURNS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS...
...HEAT BUILDS IN THE WESTERN U.S. WHILE THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST
AND SOUTHEAST WILL ALSO SEE AN UNCOMFORTABLY HOT START TO THE
WEEKEND...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND THE RISK OF BOTH FLASH FLOODING AND
SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON FRIDAY, STORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MISSOURI VALLEY.
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND REMNANT OUTFLOWS/AN EFFECTIVE FRONT FROM
STORMS FRIDAY MORNING WILL HELP TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT,
EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL WITH AND BACK BUILD ALONG THE BOUNDARY,
BRINGING A GREATER CHANCE FOR SOME REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAIN AND
HEAVIER TOTALS. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IS
IN EFFECT FROM THE GREATER CHICAGO AREA WEST THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY FOR THE
THREAT OF SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING. IN ADDITION, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED
THE SAME REGION FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER, WITH A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2/5) IN EFFECT MAINLY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SOME
SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS INTO SATURDAY BRINGING THE FOCUS FOR STORM
CHANCES TO THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. SOME SEVERE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOCUSED ON PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, WHERE ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK IS IN EFFECT FOR
SOME INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST, ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE STORM FOCUS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND
ADJACENT CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE SOME MORE SCATTERED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING ARE EXPECTED, WITH ISOLATED CHANCES ELSEWHERE.
THEN, ON SATURDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE HELPING TO TRIGGER MORE
STORMS AS WELL AS INCREASING ANOMALOUSLY HIGH GULF MOISTURE WILL
BRING A GREATER THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. A BROAD SLIGHT RISK IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS
WHERE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS REMAIN SENSITIVE. SCATTERED TO
POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY, AND THE MID-ATLANTIC
NORTHWARD INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY.
SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE WEST SHOULD BE
MOSTLY DRY.
THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS OVERHEAD. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE INTO THE 90S TO LOW 100S, AND INTO THE LOW 110S
IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE MOST HAZARDOUS HEAT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO FRIDAY, AND THEN MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA VALLEYS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN BY SATURDAY, WITH
AREAS OF MAJOR HEAT RISK EXPECTED, INDICATING A LEVEL OF HEAT
DANGEROUS TO ANYONE WITHOUT ACCESS TO ADEQUATE AIR CONDITIONING OR
HYDRATION. HOT SUMMER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S., WITH ADDITIONAL AREAS OF MAJOR HEAT RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE INTERIOR
NORTHEAST SATURDAY AS HIGHS SOAR INTO THE 90S WITH MUGGY
CONDITIONS PRESENT. AREAS OF THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST WILL SEE BELOW
AVERAGE, MORE TEMPERATE SUMMER CONDITIONS WITH THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE AS WELL AS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY.
PUTNAM
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page