330
FXUS01 KWBC 112009
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
409 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2025
VALID 00Z SAT JUL 12 2025 - 00Z MON JUL 14 2025
...RISK OF FLASH FLOODING RETURNS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY FOR AREAS IN NEW MEXICO, OKLAHOMA, AND TEXAS...
...SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHWEST
TEXAS ON SATURDAY...
..HEAT BUILDS IN THE WESTERN U.S., WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE PLAINS USHERS IN A BRIEF COMFORTABLE JULY AIR MASS...
ALL EYES WILL BE FOCUSING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NEW MEXICO
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. WPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FROM THE HILL COUNTRY OF
TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA AND WESTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO. THERE IS LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION, BUT THE FORECAST
QPF HAS 3-4 INCHES IN OKLAHOMA AND 2-3 INCHES IN A VERY SATURATED
WEST TEXAS. ANOTHER AREA OF INTEREST TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE FROM NORTHERN VIRGINIA TO NEW YORK STATE AS
STORMS WILL FIRE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS HAS PROMPTED WPC TO ISSUE A SLIGHT
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AS SOME SCATTERED FLOODING IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN TERRAIN.
A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR JULY STANDARDS WILL CONTROL MOST OF THE
LOCATIONS THAT MAY SEE SEVERE WEATHER. ON SATURDAY, MICHIGAN,
NORTHERN INDIANA, AND NORTHERN OHIO ARE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR
THE HAZARDS OF STRONG WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL. MEANWHILE, ABUNDANT
INSTABILITY AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY
WILL HELP SPARK THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY THAT MAY PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS FROM MICROBURST POTENTIAL PER SPC. ON
SUNDAY, A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND MID-ATLANTIC. THE RISK LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY A STRONG WIND
GUST OR TWO, BUT THE SPC DOES NOT HAVE TOO MUCH THUNDERSTORM
ORGANIZATION HIGHLIGHTED.
THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS OVERHEAD. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE INTO THE 90S TO LOW 100S, AND INTO THE LOW 110S
IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE MOST HAZARDOUS HEAT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA VALLEYS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN
BY SATURDAY, WITH AREAS OF MAJOR HEAT RISK EXPECTED, INDICATING A
LEVEL OF HEAT DANGEROUS TO ANYONE WITHOUT ACCESS TO ADEQUATE AIR
CONDITIONING OR HYDRATION. AREAS OF THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST WILL
SEE BELOW AVERAGE AND FEEL MORE TEMPERATE SUMMER CONDITIONS WITH
THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S AND
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP BY SUNDAY. THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST WILL BE WARM AND HUMID ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE; SOME TOWNS AND CITIES MAY
BE IN THE MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK BEFORE COOLING OFF BY SUNDAY
AS A COLD FRONT COMES IN. THE SOUTHEAST WILL HAVE JULY WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE FEELING OVER 100 DEGREES WITH THE
BERMUDA HIGH IN CHARGE OF THE AIR MASS.
WILDER
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