806
FXUS05 KWBC 171230
PMD90D
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2025
SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS
EL NIñO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT, AS
EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE NEAR AVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF THE
TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN. THE LATEST NIñO 3.4 WEEKLY DEPARTURE WAS +0.1 DEGREES
CELSIUS, WHICH IS SQUARELY IN ENSO-NEUTRAL TERRITORY. AS SUCH, ENSO-NEUTRAL
CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE LATE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SUMMER 2025 (56
PERCENT CHANCE IN AUGUST-OCTOBER (ASO)). THEREAFTER, CHANCES OF LA NIñA
CONDITIONS INCREASE INTO THE FALL AND WINTER 2025-26, BUT REMAIN COMPARABLE TO
ENSO-NEUTRAL. THE CHANCES OF EL NIñO ARE VERY SMALL (AROUND 10 PERCENT OR LESS)
THROUGH THE REST OF THE SUMMER, THE FALL, AND THE UPCOMING WINTER.
THE ASO 2025 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALMOST
THE ENTIRE COUNTRY. THE LARGEST PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT) OF
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST,
NORTHEAST, AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA, WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 60 PERCENT FOR
MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY FOR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE ALASKA NORTH SLOPE. THE ASO 2025 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK DEPICTS
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, ROCKIES, AND GREAT BASIN. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS)
AND MOST OF ALASKA. THE GREATEST CHANCES (ABOVE 40 PERCENT) OF ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MAINLAND
ALASKA. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) ARE FORECAST FOR AREAS WHERE PROBABILITIES FOR EACH
CATEGORY OF SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURES AND SEASONAL ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES.
BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS
NOTE: FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/TOOLS/BRIEFING
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS
DURING JUNE 2025, ENSO-NEUTRAL CONTINUED, WITH NEAR-AVERAGE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES PREVAILING ACROSS MOST OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. THE LATEST
WEEKLY NIñO SST INDEX VALUES RANGED FROM +0.1°C TO +0.4°C. SUBSURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WERE WEAKLY POSITIVE AND NEARLY UNCHANGED FROM LAST
MONTH, WITH MOSTLY ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
THERMOCLINE. OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN,
LOW-LEVEL WIND ANOMALIES WERE EASTERLY AND UPPER-LEVEL WIND ANOMALIES WERE
WESTERLY. CONVECTION REMAINED ENHANCED OVER INDONESIA. COLLECTIVELY, THE
COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE SYSTEM IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC REFLECTED ENSO-NEUTRAL.
DYNAMICAL MODELS DEPICT A ROBUST MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) EMERGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN PACIFIC IN MID- TO LATE-JULY, WITH EASTWARD PROPAGATION INTO
THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE MONTH. INCREASED TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) ACTIVITY REMAINS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC DURING
THE NEXT 2 WEEKS TIED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ENHANCED LOW FREQUENCY CONVECTIVE
SIGNAL. THE DEVELOPING MJO FAVORS INCREASING CHANCES OF TC DEVELOPMENT
SPREADING INTO THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC TOWARD THE END OF JULY INTO EARLY
AUGUST ENDING THE CURRENT LULL IN TC ACTIVITY ACROSS THE BASIN. WHILE THE
ATLANTIC IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO REMAIN QUIET IN TERMS OF TC ACTIVITY FOR THE
NEXT FEW WEEKS, SIGNS POINT TO THIS MJO EVENT REACHING A MORE FAVORABLE
POSITION IN EARLY- TO MID-AUGUST, POSSIBLY LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES OF TC
FORMATION COINCIDING WITH THE UPTICK IN CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS THE MAIN DEVELOPMENT
REGION.
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS
THE INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE (IRI) PREDICTIONS INDICATE ENSO-NEUTRAL IS
MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER 2025-26. IN CONTRAST, THE
NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) FAVORS THE ONSET OF LA NIñA
CONDITIONS DURING THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE FALL, THOUGH LASTING A SHORTER
DURATION THAN NOAA'S REQUIREMENT OF FIVE CONSECUTIVE OVERLAPPING 3-MONTH
SEASONS. WHILE THE SUBSURFACE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE,
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE PREDICTED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE COMING MONTH, WHICH
COULD PORTEND COOLER CONDITIONS. IN SUMMARY, ENSO-NEUTRAL IS MOST LIKELY
THROUGH THE LATE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SUMMER 2025 (56% CHANCE IN ASO).
THEREAFTER, CHANCES OF LA NIñA CONDITIONS INCREASE INTO THE FALL AND WINTER
2025-26, BUT REMAIN NEARLY EQUAL TO ENSO-NEUTRAL.
PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS
DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS FROM THE NMME, THE COUPLED FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL
VERSION 2 (CFSV2), AND THE COPERNICUS (C3S) MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE SYSTEM WERE
USED EXTENSIVELY FOR THE FIRST SIX LEADS WHEN THEY ARE AVAILABLE, AS WAS THE
OBJECTIVE, HISTORICAL SKILL WEIGHTED CONSOLIDATION AND CALIBRATION, BRIDGING,
AND MERGING (CBAM) GUIDANCE, THAT COMBINES BOTH DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL
FORECAST INFORMATION.
ANTECEDENT BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS SUCH AS SOIL MOISTURE, SEA ICE EXTENT, AND
EXTRATROPICAL SSTS WERE UTILIZED WHERE APPROPRIATE. ADDITIONALLY, THE OFFICIAL
ENSO FORECAST FAVORS ENSO NEUTRAL OR LA NIñA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WINTER. THE ANTICIPATED ABSENCE OF EL NIñO PLAYED A ROLE IN THE CONSTRUCTION OF
THESE OUTLOOKS. COMPOSITES DERIVED FROM NEAREST NEIGHBOR STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
OF RECENTLY OBSERVED TROPICAL PACIFIC SST AND EQUATORIAL HEAT ANOMALIES WERE
UTILIZED WHEN RELEVANT. AT LATER LEADS, DECADAL TRENDS IN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION WERE INCREASINGLY RELIED UPON IN CREATING THE SEASONAL OUTLOOKS.
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - ASO 2025 TO ASO 2026
TEMPERATURE
ONE OF THE MAIN HEADLINES FOR THE LATE SUMMER AND EARLY FALL IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD WARMTH AS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR VIRTUALLY
THE ENTIRE NATION. THIS IS NOT PARTICULARLY SURPRISING GIVEN THAT THE ASO
PERIOD HAS AMONG THE LARGEST COVERAGE OF WARM TRENDS OF ANY THREE MONTH PERIOD
OF THE YEAR. THESE WARM TRENDS ARE PARTICULARLY STRONG IN THE NORTHEAST, THE
INTERIOR WEST, AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA, WHERE PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXCEED 50 PERCENT. IN THE NORTHEAST, ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS IN THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC SUPPORT EVEN GREATER CONFIDENCE (ABOVE 60 PERCENT CHANCE) OF
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. ENHANCED CHANCES OF
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY LOWER FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST WHERE WARM TRENDS ARE COMPARATIVELY WEAK. ADDITIONALLY
THE SOIL MOISTURE TOOL FEATURES A PROBABILITY MINIMUM FOR PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND ADJACENT MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE
PROBABILITIES ARE ONLY 33 TO 40 PERCENT. DYNAMICAL MODELS SUCH AS THE NMME ALSO
DEPICT MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WHERE PROBABILITIES
OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO ONLY 33 TO 40 PERCENT. SSTS ARE CURRENTLY
COLDER THAN NORMAL ALONG MUCH OF THE WEST COAST AND DYNAMICAL MODELS SUCH AS
THE NMME DEPICT A WEAKER WARM SIGNAL THERE, SO CONFIDENCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS LESS ALONG THE COAST RELATIVE TO INLAND AREAS. PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LESS THAN 40 PERCENT ALONG MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. UNCERTAINTY IS ALSO HIGH FOR NORTHEASTERN
ALASKA, WHICH IS ONE OF THE FEW AREAS OF THE COUNTRY WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FAVORED. THE CURRENT DISTRIBUTION OF ARCTIC SEA ICE IS NOT
AS CONDUCIVE FOR ABNORMAL WARMTH ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF THE NORTH SLOPE
RELATIVE TO AREAS FARTHER TO THE WEST. FOR THIS REASON, NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR EASTERN AREAS OF THE NORTH SLOPE, WHILE
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY FOR WESTERN AREAS. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA, WITH THE GREATEST
CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE, CONSISTENT WITH RECENT
TRENDS.
AS WE PROGRESS TO THE CORE FALL SEASON (SEPTEMBER-NOVEMBER (SON) AND
OCTOBER-DECEMBER (OND)), WARM TRENDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE NATION
WHILE EARLY IMPACTS FROM THE ANTICIPATED LACK OF EL NIñO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
FORECAST PATTERN LATER IN FALL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE NATION IN BOTH SON AND OND, CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS. THE
MOST CONFIDENT AREAS OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES (SON), AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
(OND), AND THE NORTHEAST (SON AND OND), CONSISTENT WITH RECENT TRENDS.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHERE EC
IS INDICATED AS TRENDS WEAKEN LATER IN FALL AND INCREASED ENSO IMPACTS
POTENTIALLY TAKE HOLD. THIS INCREASE IN UNCERTAINTY IS SUPPORTED BY THE NMME
WHICH HAS A WEAK SIGNAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF
ALASKA IN BOTH SON AND OND, CONSISTENT WITH RECENT TRENDS. HOWEVER, NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR EASTERN AREAS OF THE NORTH SLOPE DUE
LARGELY TO SEA ICE CONSIDERATIONS. CONFIDENCE DECREASES FOR MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF ALASKA WHERE TRENDS ARE RELATIVELY WEAKER AND ENSO IMPACTS
MAY DECREASE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES LATER IN FALL.
DURING THE COLD SEASONS (NOVEMBER-JANUARY (NDJ), DECEMBER-FEBRUARY (DJF),
JANUARY-MARCH (JFM), AND FEBRUARY-APRIL (FMA)) THE ANTICIPATED LACK OF EL NIñO
IS A MAIN DRIVER INFORMING THE FORECAST. AS THERE IS ROUGHLY A 90 PERCENT
PROBABILITY THAT EL NIñO CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE PRESENT DURING THE WINTER, THE
FORECAST PATTERNS RESEMBLE THOSE MORE TYPICAL OF LA NIñA. MOST OF THE NATION IS
FAVORED TO EXPERIENCE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN NDJ AS WARM TRENDS CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. AS WE GET DEEPER IN THE WINTER SEASON, ENSO
IMPACTS BECOME MORE EVIDENT. THE FIRST COLD SIGNALS APPEAR IN DJF ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH A LACK OF EL NIñO. A
TILT TOWARD BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN APPEARS IN JFM OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PEAKS IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES IN FMA. CONVERSELY, THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
THE CONUS IS CONSISTENTLY FAVORED TO BE WARMER THAN USUAL, TYPICAL OF A LACK OF
EL NIñO. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR THE EAST COAST DUE TO
WARM RECENT TRENDS DURING THE CORE WINTER MONTHS. ALASKA IS GENERALLY FAVORED
TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINLAND AND COLDER
THAN NORMAL OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH THE PREDICTED ENSO STATE.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT SPRING AND SUMMER, THE PATTERN IS ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY
INFORMED BY RECENT TRENDS. AS WE GET DEEPER INTO THE WARM SEASON, THE OUTLOOK
FAVORS INCREASED CHANCES OF WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS IN A U-SHAPED PATTERN
COVERING THE WESTERN, SOUTHERN, AND EASTERN CONUS. WARMER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED FOR WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA DURING SPRING AND THEN
SHIFTING MORE TOWARD THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE BY SUMMER.
PRECIPITATION
THE ASO PERIOD FALLS SQUARELY WITHIN THE PEAK OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.
WITH AN ABOVE-NORMAL ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST, TROPICAL ACTIVITY WILL
BE A KEY WILDCARD IN THE PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION ALONG THE GULF AND EAST
COASTS AND ADJACENT INLAND AREAS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ALONG
MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WESTWARD TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
GENERALLY FOLLOWING GUIDANCE FROM THE FINAL CONSOLIDATION TOOL. THE NORTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THE ABOVE-NORMAL AREA IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT TRENDS WHILE THE
WESTERN EXTENSION TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE C3S AND
IS CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL ENHANCED TROPICAL ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ABOVE-NORMAL ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. CONVERSELY, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN. THESE AREAS OF
FAVORED DRYNESS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE FINAL CONSOLIDATION, RECENT TRENDS, AND
BELOW-NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF
ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH THE NMME AND RECENT TRENDS.
THE FALL SEASON (SON AND OND) FEATURES A TRANSITION FROM GREATER TOPICAL
INFLUENCES EARLY TO GREATER ENSO INFLUENCES LATE. DURING EARLY FALL (SON),
ENHANCED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST
COAST, CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL INCREASED TROPICAL ACTIVITY AND WITH THE
PRECEDING ASO FORECAST PERIOD. SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES EXTEND WESTWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH SUPPORT FROM THE CBAM
TOOL. CONVERSELY, A DRY SIGNAL IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF RECENT TRENDS AND DYNAMICAL MODEL SUPPORT. LATER IN
FALL (OND), THE FORECAST PATTERN INCREASINGLY BEGINS TO RESEMBLE A LA-NIñA-LIKE
SIGNATURE, WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AND A TILT TOWARD BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA IN (SON) AND INCREASES IN
COVERAGE LATER IN FALL (OND), CONSISTENT WITH RECENT TRENDS.
DURING THE COLD THREE-MONTH PERIODS (NDJ, DJF, JFM, AND FMA), THE PREDICTED
PRECIPITATION PATTERNS WERE REMARKABLY CONSISTENT AND TYPICAL OF A LACK OF EL
NIñO. THE CORE WINTER MONTHS (DJF AND JFM) FEATURE INCREASED CHANCES OF
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
WITH DRYNESS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR NORTHERN ALASKA DURING LATE FALL/EARLY WINTER
SHIFTING MORE TOWARD WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AS THE WINTER PROGRESSES.
DURING NEXT SPRING AND SUMMER, RECENT TRENDS FAVOR DRYNESS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
EARLY, THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY TO PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE WARMER MONTHS. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CHANCES OF
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE EAST DURING THE CORE
SUMMER MONTHS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR NORTHWESTERN ALASKA
DURING SPRING, THEN SHIFTING TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MAINLAND
DURING SUMMER.
FORECASTER: SCOTT HANDEL
THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1991 AND 2020, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATIC REFERENCE PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.
FOR A DESCRIPTION OF OF THE STANDARD FORECAST TOOLS - THEIR SKILL- AND THE
FORECAST FORMAT PLEASE SEE OUR WEB PAGE AT
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/LONG_RANGE/TOOLS.HTML
(USE LOWER CASE LETTERS)
INFORMATION ON THE FORMATION OF SKILL OF THE CAS FORECASTS MAY BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/SOILMST_MONITORING/US/OUTLOOK/OUTLOOK.SHTM
L
(USE LOWERCASE LETTERS)
NOTES - THESE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR
VALID PERIOD. WITHIN ANY GIVEN VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM
RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.
THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT
MONTH ON AUG 21 2025
1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE WITH THE MAY 20, 2021
FORECAST RELEASE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page