667
FXUS01 KWBC 190750
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
350 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2025
VALID 12Z SAT JUL 19 2025 - 12Z MON JUL 21 2025
...EXPANSIVE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE
MIDWEST, OHIO VALLEY, AND MID-ATLANTIC WITH LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE...
...SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS, MIDWEST, MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...
...DANGEROUS SUMMER HEAT WAVE TO GROW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND SOUTHEAST INTO NEXT WEEK...
THIS WEEKEND'S WEATHER PATTERN HAS A "RING OF FIRE" LOOK OVER THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE LOWER 48. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ATOP
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP THE SOUTH MIRED IN SULTRY
CONDITIONS WHILE AN ACTIVE JET STREAM IS SITUATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, A STEADFAST LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DIRECT RICH TROPICAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARDS A SEMI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ORIENTED WEST-TO-EAST FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID-ATLANTIC. AS PACIFIC DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED JET STREAM RACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.,
THEY WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE ELONGATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS WILL TAP
INTO THE TROPICAL AIR-MASS AND POSE A BROAD FLASH FLOOD THREAT
ACROSS A LARGE SECTION OF THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S.. WPC HAS A SLIGHT
RISK (THREAT LEVEL 2/4) IN PLACE FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA ALL THE WAY
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. THE FRONT DOES NOT MAKE MUCH
PROGRESS EAST ON SUNDAY, KEEPING MUCH OF CORN BELT AND OHIO VALLEY
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD RESULT IN
LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND
OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND.
FLASH FLOODING IS NOT THE ONLY THREAT THAT PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
PLAINS, MIDWEST, AND MID-ATLANTIC FACE THIS WEEKEND, AS THE SAME
STORMS THAT POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT COULD BE SEVERE IN SOME
CASES. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS ISSUED THREE SEPARATE
SLIGHT RISKS (THREAT LEVEL 2/5) FOR PORTIONS OF THESE REGIONS. BY
SUNDAY, SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO
THE NORTHEAST, BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. SPC HAS
A SLIGHT RISK FROM THE POCONOS ON EAST TO THE MAINE COAST WITH
METRO AREAS SUCH AS NYC, HARTFORD, PROVIDENCE, AND BOSTON WITHIN
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. SEVERE STORMS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AS WELL. LOOK FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODS AND SEVERE WEATHER TO STICK
AROUND IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST TO KICK-OFF
THE START OF THE UPCOMING WORK-WEEK.
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL
LOCK IN PLACE THE KIND OF SEARING HEAT AND OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY
THAT OCCURS DURING THE "DOG DAYS OF SUMMER" FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST. HEATRISK
SHOWS A GROWING FOOTPRINT OF MAJOR IMPACTS FROM THE OZARKS AND
OHIO-MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONFLUENCE TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THERE
ARE SOME LOCALIZED CASES OF EXTREME IMPACTS IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN
GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. HEAT INDICES THROUGHOUT THESE
REGIONS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 105-110F WITH SOME INSTANCES WHERE HEAT
INDICES REACH 115F. EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE OUT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT
LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK-WEEK. THERE ARE
ALSO HEAT ADVISORIES FOR PARTS OF OKLAHOMA, ARKANSAS, AND ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE LOOKS TO BECOME A MORE
PRONOUNCED HEAT DOME OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S. LATER NEXT WEEK.
PLEASE REVIEW OUR ONGOING KEY MESSAGES FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON
NEXT WEEK'S EXPANDING HEAT WAVE.
MULLINAX
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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