595
FXUS01 KWBC 201939
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
338 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2025
VALID 00Z MON JUL 21 2025 - 00Z WED JUL 23 2025
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE VALLEY ON SUNDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND THE OHIO VALLEYS ON MONDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND, OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REMAINS
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FRONT, EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SUNDAY, WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN
EXTEND NORTHWESTWARD TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY
EVENING. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAIN.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. NUMEROUS FLASH FLOODING EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONALLY, MANY STREAMS MAY FLOOD, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING LARGER
RIVERS.
ADDITIONALLY, ON SUNDAY, MOISTURE JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAIN, OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL PRIMARILY CREATE LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS,
AND LOW-LYING AREAS BEING THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ADDITIONALLY, ON SUNDAY, SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS, ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOES. MOREOVER, THERE IS AN INCREASED THREAT OF HAIL TWO
INCHES OR GREATER OVER THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY, AIR QUALITY ALERTS
ARE IN EFFECT OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA DUE TO WILDFIRES IN CANADA
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
FURTHERMORE, THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS/OHIO VALLEY WILL PRODUCE TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE
HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOES. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS/OHIO VALLEY WILL HAVE A MINIMAL THREAT FOR HAIL. IN
ADDITION, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES, CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, AND
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.
MOREOVER, ON MONDAY, MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS, CREATING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP WITH THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AS WELL AS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AS
WELL AS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL PRIMARILY CREATE
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL
STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS BEING THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ADDITIONALLY, ON MONDAY, THE WESTERN END OF THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
ON MONDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH
OF THE FRONT, FROM THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TO THE GULF COAST.
MOREOVER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR AND ALONG
THE FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT OVER
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND GREAT
BASIN/SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN
THE MOISTURE-RICH AIR OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
ON TUESDAY, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. FURTHER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL PRIMARILY
CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS,
SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS BEING THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ALSO ON TUESDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS
OF THE SOUTHEAST, THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS, THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND THE SOUTHWEST.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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