986
FXUS01 KWBC 220744
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
343 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2025
VALID 12Z TUE JUL 22 2025 - 12Z THU JUL 24 2025
...OPPRESSIVE HEAT TO EXPAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, MIDWEST,
AND DEEP SOUTH THROUGH MID-WEEK; NEARLY 60 MILLION PEOPLE UNDER
HEAT-RELATED WARNINGS, WATCHES, & ADVISORIES...
...THUNDERSTORMS TO POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST, MIDWEST, AND SOUTHEAST...
...SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS & MIDWEST;
UNSEASONABLY COOL & COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHEAST &
SOUTHWEST...
THE "DOG DAYS OF SUMMER" ARE IN FULL SWING FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY AS A STRENGTHENING HEAT DOME OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE
UPPER 90S WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SET SOME LOCALIZED DAILY RECORDS
IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR LATE JULY. IN ADDITION, OVERNIGHT/MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING ONLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL BREAK A
GREATER NUMBER OF WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS. HEAT INDICES
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL RANGE BETWEEN
100-110F EACH DAY WITH LOCALIZED READINGS POTENTIALLY REACHING
115F. HEATRISK DEPICTS MAJOR TO LOCALLY EXTREME LEVELS ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY, WITH THE MAJOR
LEVELS FOOTPRINT GROWING IN SIZE ACROSS THE MIDWEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOGETHER WITH
EXTREME HEAT WATCHES ACROSS THE MIDWEST, INCLUDING THE MAJORITY OF
THE CHICAGOLAND AREA. MEANWHILE, HEAT ADVISORIES ENCOMPASS MUCH OF
THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. WPC CONTINUES TO CARRY KEY
MESSAGES FOR THIS ONGOING HEAT WAVE. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY/HEAT FOR MORE INFORMATION ON TIPS FOR HOW
TO STAY COOL AND SAFE WHEN DEALING WITH OPPRESSIVE HEAT.
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S. CONTINUES TO BE HEAVILY
INFLUENCED BY A SO-CALLED "RING OF FIRE" WEATHER PATTERN; AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. CIRCULATING A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN TIERS OF
THE U.S. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CHANNELING RICH GULF
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. FARTHER EAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST IS PUSHING A
COLD FRONT DOWN THE EAST COAST WITH LOW PRESSURE LINGERING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. WPC MAINTAINS A PAIR OF SLIGHT RISKS (THREAT LEVEL
2/4) FOR FLASH FLOODING IN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE
SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER MIDWEST, AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS, ALSO FEATURE SLIGHT RISKS FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH
MID-WEEK WHERE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES. IN THE SOUTHEAST, THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INCORPORATE TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO FOSTER LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
FROM THE CAROLINAS ON SOUTH THROUGHOUT MUCH OF FLORIDA. WPC HAS A
SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN GEORGIA AND THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS TODAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE REMAINS A MARGINAL RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING THAT EXTENDS AS FAR WEST AS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE, REGIONS EXPECTING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A
MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEK ARE THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. THE NORTHEAST WILL WITNESS UNUSUALLY COOL
AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JULY WITH SOME COMMUNITIES
STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE 80 DEGREES TODAY. THIS PERIOD OF
COOL/COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHEAST WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS SULTRY CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK-WEEK.
IN CONTRAST, MUCH OF CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
MULLINAX
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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