014
FXUS06 KWBC 221901
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE JULY 22 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 28 - AUG 01, 2025
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA
CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED
ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GEFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS, WEIGHING THE
ECMWF MODEL GREATER DUE TO RECENT MODEL SKILL. THE RESULTANT MANUAL BLEND
FEATURES MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF THE
CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS) ALONG AND EAST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DURING THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD FAVORING CLOSER TO NORMAL HEIGHTS. MEANWHILE, A STRONG MID-LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, WHILE A TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA, SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AND ALONG MUCH OF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA. SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED ACROSS HAWAII.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF
THE CONUS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION AND MOST OF THE
OTHER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE, AND IS ATTRIBUTED TO PREDICTED ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING AND BROAD LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS LARGE AREA OF
FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS OVER CALIFORNIA, WESTERN NEVADA, AND
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WHERE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED.
THESE AREAS ARE PREDICTED TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHS
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE NORTHEAST. IN ALASKA, NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF MAINLAND AND THE ALEUTIANS FAVOR INCREASED
CHANCES FOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND
THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST ALASKA THAT MAY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION, INCREASING CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WARMER THAN AVERAGE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN HAWAII, SUPPORTED ALSO BY THE HAWAII-CON AND THE AUTO-BLEND.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST DUE TO MID-LEVEL TROUGHING. INCREASED CHANCES FOR
ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS THE TOP OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BRINGS ELEVATED
CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS, AND THE
UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALONG THE GULF COAST AND ATLANTIC COAST, A
TROPICAL WAVE AND PREDICTED TROUGH MAY BRING ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF
NEVADA. THE MONSOON CIRCULATION LOOKS TO BE DISRUPTED LIMITING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHILE THE STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIKELY
LIMIT PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE. IN ALASKA, TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. FOR HAWAII,
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR KAUAI, OAHU, MAUI, AND THE BIG
ISLAND, CONSISTENT WITH THE HAWAII CONSOLIDATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOL.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5. GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION FORECASTS OFFSET BY SOME DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 30 - AUG 05, 2025
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FOR THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA
DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT, WHILE THE
OVERALL PATTERN EVOLVES AND DEAMPLIFIES LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE
MANUAL BLEND OF MODEL FORECASTS, A RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
IS FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DURING WEEK-2. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS REMAINS
IN THE WEEK-2 FORECAST. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE HAS LOWER ANOMALIES RELATIVE TO THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA, THE GULF
OF ALASKA, AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE
PREDICTED ACROSS HAWAII.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN STRONGLY FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN CONUS DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD BENEATH STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING
AND ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. BOTH THE WEST COAST AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS
ARE FORECAST TO BE INFLUENCED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHS BRINGING NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CHANCES TO THE REGIONS. IN ALASKA, ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS, WHILE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. IN HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO BE FAVORED INTO THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE
CONSOLIDATION.
AS IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER PARTS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED OVER THE GULF COAST AND
THE ATLANTIC COAST, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A TROUGH
POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS PARTS OF
NEVADA, BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION TOOLS ALSO SUPPORT
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THE
NORTHEAST. IN ALASKA, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS
OF WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, UNDER ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, DUE
TO TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. IN HAWAII, NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED WITH MIXED GUIDANCE AMONG THE TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5. GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION FORECASTS OFFSET BY DIFFERENCES AMONG
THE PRECIPITATION DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL TOOLS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19610727 - 20000805 - 19510702 - 20070804 - 20030704
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19610728 - 19510702 - 19520722 - 20070803 - 20030703
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 28 - AUG 01, 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO A A NEVADA N N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE B N
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 30 - AUG 05, 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF B N
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A A NEVADA N N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI N N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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