927
FXUS01 KWBC 230749
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
348 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2025
VALID 12Z WED JUL 23 2025 - 12Z FRI JUL 25 2025
...OVER 95 MILLION PEOPLE ARE UNDER HEAT RELATED WARNINGS &
ADVISORIES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY RAINS, FLASH FLOODING & SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FROM THE
NORTHERN & CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY &
UPPER GREAT LAKES...
...HEAVY RAINS & FLASH FLOODING ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHEAST,
ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA, & INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FEATURES A STRENGTHENING HEAT DOME OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY THAT GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST TOWARDS
THE EAST COAST BY WEEK'S END. A COMBINATION OF MID-UPPER 90S FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE A RECIPE FOR OPPRESSIVE
HEAT INDICES THAT RANGE BETWEEN 100-115F FOR MANY AREAS ALONG AND
JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TODAY. RECORD HEAT IN PARTS OF
THESE REGIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED, WITH THE BULK OF THE RECORD
WARMTH COMING VIA THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING LOWS AS TEMPERATURES DROP
ONLY INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S. THE NWS HEATRISK PRODUCT DEPICTS
MAJOR IMPACTS, AND EVEN LOCALIZED EXTREME IMPACTS, FROM AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. BY THURSDAY, THE FOOTPRINT OF SEARING HEAT MOVES EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. NUMEROUS HEAT-RELATED WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
WITH HEAT ADVISORIES ALSO OUT FOR THURSDAY IN PARTS OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. WPC CONTINUES TO CARRY KEY MESSAGES FOR THIS
ONGOING HEAT WAVE. PLEASE VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY/HEAT FOR
MORE INFORMATION ON TIPS FOR HOW TO STAY COOL AND SAFE WHEN
DEALING WITH DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS.
AS THE HEAT RIDGE ORIENTS ITSELF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TODAY, COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY. THIS MOISTURE SOURCE WILL
BE DIRECTED AT AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TRIGGER
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE SLIGHT RISKS ISSUED FROM BOTH THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) AND STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)
AS WIDESPREAD STORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST POSE A THREAT FOR BOTH
FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. BY THURSDAY, THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT SHIFTS SOUTH FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON EAST TO THE
GREAT LAKES. WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (THREAT LEVEL 2/4) FOR
FLASH FLOODING FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. FARTHER SOUTH, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTING WEST ALONG
THE GULF COAST WILL UTILIZE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
AND ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA THROUGH THURSDAY. WPC HAS ISSUED A
MARGINAL RISK FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THURSDAY.
IN THE WEST, TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY BE ON THE UNSEASONABLY COOL
SIDE THANKS TO A MEANDERING CUT-OFF UPPER LOW MEANDERING OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL ALSO
ACT AS A TRIGGER FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PATS OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY, PARTICULARLY IN THE SHASTA AND SIERRA
NEVADA MOUNTAIN RANGES. WPC HAS INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK (THREAT
LEVEL 1/4) FOR THURSDAY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING NEAR BURN SCARS AND ALONG COMPLEX TERRAIN IN THESE
MOUNTAIN RANGES. ASIDE FROM THE LOCALLY HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHENR CALIFORNIA, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MULLINAX
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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