166
FXUS01 KWBC 231850
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
249 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2025
VALID 00Z THU JUL 24 2025 - 00Z SAT JUL 26 2025
...APPROXIMATELY 107 MILLION PEOPLE UNDER EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS
AND HEAT ADVISORIES FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE LOWER
LAKES...
...HEAVY RAINS, FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...
...HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE ALONG MUCH OF THE GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...
...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST, BUT A
FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN
DUE TO LIGHTNING...
THE LATE JULY HEAT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD REGION OF MAJOR HEAT RISKS
STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, NORTH THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER
LAKES REGION THURSDAY, PUSHING EASTWARD BY FRIDAY ACROSS THE
MEGALOPOLIS FROM BOSTON TO NEW YORK CITY, PHILADELPHIA, BALTIMORE
AND WASHINGTON D.C. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORING THIS
HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH FROM THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
OHIO-TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, WITH
THIS UPPER RIDGE LIKELY TO REMAIN A DOMINANT FORCE GOING INTO THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. IN THE REGIONS OF HIGH HEAT RISKS,
EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES STRETCH ACROSS LARGE
PORTIONS OF THE MID SECTION OF THE CONUS, THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THERE IS APPROXIMATELY
107 MILLION PEOPLE UNDER THESE EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT
ADVISORIES, WITH THIS NUMBER LIKELY TO INCREASE BY FRIDAY AS THE
HEAT SPREADS BACK INTO THE EAST COAST URBAN CORRIDOR. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE IN AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS
HEAT WAVE, THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MANY RECORDS ON THURSDAY,
WITH A FEW MORE RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
FROM PHILADELPHIA INTO NEW YORK CITY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THERE WILL, HOWEVER, BE A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD RECORD
HIGH MORNING LOWS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS STRETCHING THROUGH
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING, SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST COAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS.
AROUND THE PERIPHERIES OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORMS, HEAVY RAINS, LOCALIZED FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER
ARE POSSIBLE AS ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS OF MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST. AREAS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY SEE THE MOST ACTIVE AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE
VICINITY OF A WELL DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD. ONGOING ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL EXPAND SOUTHWESTWARD
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ANOTHER ROUND OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
AGAIN LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG
THIS FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. WITH BOTH
EPISODES OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS, HEAVY RAINS, LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. CURRENTLY FLOOD
WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO FAR NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN, AFFECTING APPROXIMATELY 1 MILLION PEOPLE.
A WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALSO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ON
THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM FLORIDA,
WEST ALONG MUCH OF THE GULF COAST. THIS WET WEATHER IS BEING
DRIVEN BY A SERIES OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THAT ARE
PUSHING WESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE GULF COAST. HEAVY
RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE URBANIZED REGIONS.
WHILE THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONUS WILL EXPERIENCE VERY ACTIVE
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FROM HEAT AND THUNDERSTORMS,
RELATIVELY QUIETER WEATHER ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE HEADING INTO THE LATER PART
OF THE WORK WEEK FROM CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN
AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN TO
CENTRAL ROCKIES, WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER RECENT
BURN SCAR REGIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, NORTHWEST NEVADA, FAR
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND FAR SOUTHWEST IDAHO TO THE EAST OF A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW PUSHING OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND INTO THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. WHILE THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION, LIGHTING FROM THE STORMS
MAY IGNITE WILD FIRES ACROSS THESE AREAS. FIRE WEATHER WATCHES
ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN
OREGON.
ORAVEC
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