360
FXUS06 KWBC 231920
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED JULY 23 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 29 - AUG 02, 2025
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA
CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT A SLOWLY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED
ON THESE THREE ENSEMBLE MEANS, WITH THE HIGHER WEIGHT ASSIGNED TO THE ECENS
MODEL DUE TO RECENT MODEL SKILL. THE MANUAL BLEND FEATURES MID-LEVEL RIDGING
AND ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES
(CONUS), FROM MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
GULF AND SOUTHEAST COASTS. A 594-DM HEIGHT CONTOUR ENVELOPS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
STATES. WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHTS ARE DEPICTED OVER CALIFORNIA/NEVADA, AND MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND NORTHEAST. OVER THE ALASKA DOMAIN, MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED TO BE
MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. SEVERAL MODERATELY
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE FEATURES ENCROACH UPON THE STATE; RIDGES FROM THE WEST AND
EAST, AND A TROUGH FROM THE SOUTH. FOR HAWAII, POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
DEPARTURES OF ABOUT 30 METERS ARE INDICATED BY THE MODELS.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, THE ROCKIES, AND APPROXIMATELY THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION AND AUTO-TEMPERATURE FORECASTS, AND IS ATTRIBUTED TO
PREDICTED ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND BROAD LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERE
ARE TWO EXCEPTIONS TO THIS LARGE AREA OF FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
FIRST INCLUDES CALIFORNIA, NEVADA, AND WESTERN ARIZONA, WHERE NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW. THE SECOND EXCEPTION IS FOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FAVORED OVER APPROXIMATELY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS EAST OF
THE ROCKIES. THIS IS DUE TO A COOLER, DRIER AIR MASS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA
THAT FIRST MOVES INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, AND THEN TRANSLATES EASTWARD
WITH TIME TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS PUSH OF COOLER AIR IS PREDICTED BY ALL
THREE ENSEMBLE MEAN REFORECAST TEMPERATURES (AND SKILL-WEIGHTED CONSOLIDATED
TEMPERATURES), THE RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND
BIAS-CORRECTED TEMPERATURES. OVER THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
THIS REPRESENTS A 2-CLASS CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE ANOMALY FROM YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER, AS JUST NOTED ABOVE, NEARLY ALL TOOLS AGREE ON THIS AND THIS REGION IS
FORECAST TO BE THE FIRST AREA AFFECTED BY THE COOLER CANADIAN AIR MASS. IN
ALASKA, NEAR TO MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE DEPICTED WITH ONLY
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FAVORING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS PREDICTED PATTERN
OVER ALASKA GENERALLY MIRRORS THE EXPECTED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN.
WARMER THAN AVERAGE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC FAVOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN HAWAII, SUPPORTED ALSO BY THE HAWAII-CON AND THE
AUTO-BLEND.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS, WITH THE PRIMARY EXCEPTION BEING THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
OHIO VALLEY, MOST OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE INTERIOR MID-ATLANTIC, WHERE NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ELEVATED. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
MID-ATLANTIC, PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE SOMEWHAT
HIGHER (40-50%) TIED TO ONSHORE FLOW FORECAST SOUTH OF A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
PREDICTED NEAR/OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
WEST COAST TROUGH FAVORS ELEVATED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION (UP TO
50-60%) OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND EASTERN
WYOMING. IN THE SOUTHWEST, THE MONSOON CIRCULATION IS SOMEWHAT DISRUPTED, BUT
THE INCREASING DEPTH OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH AND INCREASED CHANCES OF GULF
SURGES RELATED TO A PREDICTED UPTICK IN TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC SLIGHTLY ELEVATES THE ODDS FOR WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS.
IN ALASKA, TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
OVER SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND ASSOCIATED WITH DRIER NORTHERLY
FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE ALEUTIANS,
BASED ON THE CONSOLIDATED AND AUTOMATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. FOR
HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR KAUAI, OAHU, MAUI, AND THE
BIG ISLAND, CONSISTENT WITH THE HAWAII AUTOMATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOL.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5. DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION FORECASTS OFFSET BY SOME
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL
TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 31 - AUG 06, 2025
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FOR THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA
DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT, WHILE THE
OVERALL PATTERN EVOLVES AND DEAMPLIFIES LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE
MANUAL BLEND OF MODEL FORECASTS, A RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT
IN THE 594-DM HEIGHT CONTOUR IS NOTED DURING WEEK-2. DURING THIS PERIOD, A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST. OVER THE ALASKA DOMAIN, THE LONG-WAVE FEATURES NOTED IN THE EARLIER
6-10 DAY PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN, WITH SOME RETROGRESSION OF THE RIDGING
PREDICTED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA AND EASTERN BERING SEA. MODEST POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE DEPICTED OVER THE STATE OF ALASKA DURING WEEK-2. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED ACROSS HAWAII.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN STRONGLY FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE CONUS DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD BENEATH MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
FAVORED AHEAD OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH, FROM THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WEST
COAST STATES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA. FOR APPROXIMATELY THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE LOWER 48 STATES,
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED, WITH ODDS OF 60-70% INDICATED OVER MUCH
OF NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PREDICTED
DEEPENING TROUGH. A SMALL AREA OF FAVORED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
INDICATED OVER PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA, IN PROXIMITY TO THE WEST COAST TROUGH
AND EXPECTED ONSHORE FLOW. IN ALASKA, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
OVER MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA, THE ALASKA PENINSULA, AND THE ALEUTIANS, WHILE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA, GENERALLY
SUPPORTED BY THE RAW AND AUTO-TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. IN HAWAII, ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE
WEEK-2 PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREDICTED 6-10 DAY
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK, WITH MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 FEATURING A WEAK TILT IN THE
ODDS TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. AREAS OF SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCES FOR
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION (40-50%) CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS AHEAD OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH, AND FROM THE
CAROLINAS SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA, REPRESENTING A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN
THE EXPECTED ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN. THERE IS A SLIGHT ELEVATION OF THE ODDS
TOWARDS DRIER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES,
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY, AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST, ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THE ALASKA PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR WEEK-2 IS SIMILAR TO ITS
6-10 DAY COUNTERPART, WHILE NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE MOSTLY
FAVORED FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5. DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION FORECASTS OFFSET BY DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE PRECIPITATION DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL TOOLS.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY A
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19610728 - 20000806 - 19720721 - 20030704 - 19510703
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19610728 - 19510703 - 19720721 - 19810727 - 20030703
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 29 - AUG 02, 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO A A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B B IOWA B A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS N N CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 31 - AUG 06, 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO A A NEVADA N N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH N A ARIZONA A A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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