913
FXUS01 KWBC 240752
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
351 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
VALID 12Z THU JUL 24 2025 - 12Z SAT JUL 26 2025
...APPROXIMATELY 130 MILLION PEOPLE ARE UNDER EXTREME HEAT
WARNINGS & HEAT ADVISORIES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
NORTHEAST..
...HEAVY RAIN, FLASH FLOODING, AND SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES...
...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG MUCH OF THE GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...
...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST, BUT A
FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN
DUE TO LIGHTNING...
A LATE JULY HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARDS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH SULTRY CONDITIONS ON TAP FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC. THIS IS DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORING
ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THAT IS ACTING AS A HEAT DOME OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE LOWER 48. HEAT INDICES WILL GENERALLY TOP
OUT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 100-105F FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MIDWEST,
AND GREAT LAKES TODAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY
WITH LOCALIZED HEAT INDICES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 110F. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN THE ISSUANCE OF NUMEROUS HEAT ADVISORIES IN THESE
REGIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY. IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDICES OF 105-110F WITH SOME LOCALIZED POCKETS
NEAR 115F HAVE RESULTED IN EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS TODAY. RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE CHALLENGED IN PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST TODAY AND FRIDAY, WITH ALL REGIONS AFFECTED LIKELY TO
SEE SOME RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BROKEN AS WELL. WPC
CONTINUES TO CARRY KEY MESSAGES FOR THIS ONGOING HEAT WAVE, WHICH
ALSO COVERS THE RETURN OF STIFLING HEAT OVER THE MIDWEST BY THIS
WEEKEND. PLEASE VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY/HEAT FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON TIPS FOR HOW TO STAY COULD AND SAFE WHEN DEALING
WITH DANGEROUS HEAT.
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CAUSES SIZZLING HEAT IN
THE EAST, IT WILL ALSO HELP TO USHER IN COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES, THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, AND MIDWEST TODAY. IN ADDITION, A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP IGNITE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION'S HEARTLAND AND IN TO THE
GREAT LAKES. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AT
THEIR DISPOSAL, WITH MOISTURE CONTENT THAT HAS ORIGINS FROM THE
TROPICS. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A SLIGHT RISK (THREAT
LEVEL 2/4) FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON EAST TO THE
CHICAGOLAND METRO AREA TODAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOT LIKELY
TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS ON FRIDAY, MAKING IT POSSIBLE FOR SIMILAR
PARTS OF THE MIDWEST THAT WERE HIT WITH STORMS ON THURSDAY COULD
SEE ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY. WPC MAINTAINS A SLIGHT
RISK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON EAST THROUGH THE HEART OF THE
MIDWEST. IN ADDITION, SOME STORMS MAY POTENTIALLY BECOME SEVERE.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A LENGTHY MARGINAL RISK (THREAT
LEVEL 1/5) FROM THE ROCKIES' FRONT RANGE TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE
SEVERE THREAT ON FRIDAY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH A MARGINAL
RISK ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST'S I-95 CORRIDOR.
ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
IN THE SOUTH, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST ALONG THE GULF
COAST CONTAINING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT WILL SPAWN ADDITIONAL
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON
EAST THROUGH MUCH OF FLORIDA TODAY. THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
CONTINUES TO MARCH WEST TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST ON FRIDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL DOWNPOURS LIKELY ALONG THE GULF COAST. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAROLINAS
TODAY THANKS TO A NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WPC IS CARRYING A
MARGINAL RISK (THREAT LEVEL 1/4) FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TODAY, WHILE FRIDAY SPORTS A MARGINAL RISK
ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
ON FRIDAY.
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE WEST IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY AND
SEASONALLY COOL CONDITIONS, THE EXCEPTION TO THE DRY CONDITIONS IS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON EAST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. A
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW WILL DIRECT MOISTURE AT THE REGION WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP. DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE A
GROWING CONCERN IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WHERE CRITICALLY DRY FUELS ARE PRESENT AND
LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD SPARK WILDFIRES IN THESE REGIONS TODAY.
SPC HIGHLIGHTS THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AS HAVING THE BETTER
ODDS OF WITNESSING DRY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE DRY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL BECOMES MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE ON FRIDAY, BUT THE
WILDFIRE POTENTIAL PERSISTS FROM THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA TO AS
FAR NORTH AS IDAHO'S SNAKE RIVER VALLEY.
MULLINAX
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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