703
FXUS06 KWBC 241924
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU JULY 24 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 30 - AUG 03, 2025
THE ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL 500-HPA
HEIGHT PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS, WITH ONLY SMALL
CHANGES RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY’S 6-10 DAY FORECAST PATTERN. THE MANUAL HEIGHT
BLEND IS BASED ON 0Z ENSEMBLE MEANS, WEIGHING THE ECMWF MODEL GREATER DUE TO
RECENT MODEL ANOMALY CORRELATION SKILL. THE MANUAL BLEND SHOWS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC, WHILE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED
OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND MAINLAND ALASKA. A RIDGE IS PREDICTED OVER MOST OF THE
CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS), WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
GULF COAST REGION. A WEAK TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
PREDICTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS IN ALL ENSEMBLE MEANS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND MAINLAND
ALASKA, UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER NEAR AVERAGE
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, UNDER THE PREDICTED RIDGE. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEVADA
UNDER THE WEAK TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST, THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS, AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH
REFORECAST-CALIBRATED GEFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS, UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A PREDICTED TROUGH
TO THE NORTHEAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII, WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND THE ISLANDS.
CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED GEFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS, BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND ALASKA. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA,
AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS FORECAST ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS, WHILE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS PREDICTED FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS OF THE
NORTHEAST, UNDER NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR HAWAII, WHERE THE AUTO AND CONSOLIDATION TOOLS ARE INCONSISTENT.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN ENSEMBLE MODELS ON THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN
FORECAST, OFFSET BY SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 01 - 07 2025
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FOR THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA
DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT, WHILE THE OVERALL
PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES. A RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MODELS. A TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS IN WEEK 2, BUT DEAMPLIFIES RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD MODEL FORECASTS. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES PERSIST INTO WEEK 2
OVER MOST OF ALASKA, WITH NEAR AVERAGE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS PREDICTED ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST FROM THE ALEUTIANS TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA IN THE MANUAL BLEND.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF ALASKA UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PANHANDLE, AHEAD OF A
PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE GULF COAST REGION, UNDER A PREDICTED RIDGE AND
CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST, UNDER A WEAK TROUGH EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER A LARGER AREA OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS, EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST, UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN WEEK 2,
EXCLUDING ONLY THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE BIG ISLAND, SUPPORTED BY THE
TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR NORTHWESTERN
MAINLAND ALASKA INTO WEEK 2, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST REMAINING AREAS OF ALASKA WITH
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY
FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AHEAD OF A TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
REMAINS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS IN WEEK 2, SUPPORTED BY MOST
MODEL FORECASTS, WHILE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS, UNDER NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII WITH DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE AUTO AND
CONSOLIDATION FORECASTS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FORECAST, OFFSET BY A
DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN AND WEAK SIGNALS IN THE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE
TOOLS FOR MANY AREAS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19720721 - 19810729 - 19610728 - 20000806 - 20030704
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19810729 - 19720721 - 20030703 - 19610729 - 19930708
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 30 - AUG 03, 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO A A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING N A
UTAH N A ARIZONA N A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B N OHIO B B KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B A
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 01 - 07 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B N OHIO B B KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A B
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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