905
FXUS01 KWBC 241937
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
336 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
VALID 00Z FRI JUL 25 2025 - 00Z SUN JUL 27 2025
...APPROXIMATELY 130 MILLION PEOPLE ARE UNDER EXTREME HEAT
WARNINGS & HEAT ADVISORIES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
NORTHEAST..
...HEAVY RAIN, FLASH FLOODING, AND SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES...
...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG MUCH OF THE GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...
...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST, BUT A
FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN
DUE TO LIGHTNING...
A LATE JULY HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH SULTRY CONDITIONS ON TAP FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST,
MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHEAST. A HEAT DOME OF UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE LOWER
48, SETTING THE STAGE FOR INTENSE AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND BEYOND. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR
HEATRISK WITH POCKETS OF EXTREME HEATRISK HAVE RESULTED IN THE
ISSUANCE OF NUMEROUS EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH MORE LIKELY TO COME HEADING INTO SATURDAY.
WPC CONTINUES TO CARRY KEY MESSAGES FOR THIS ONGOING HEAT WAVE,
WHICH ALSO HIGHLIGHTS THE INCREASINGLY DANGEROUS AND LONG LASTING
HEAT THAT IS EXPECTED TO WORSEN ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
SOUTHEAST LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY/HEAT FOR MORE INFORMATION ON TIPS FOR HOW
TO STAY COULD AND SAFE WHEN DEALING WITH DANGEROUS HEAT.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SIZZLING HEAT WILL ALSO
HELP TO USHER IN COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES, THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AND THE
MIDWEST. THIS RICH MOISTURE, COMBINED WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WILL HELP IGNITE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION'S HEARTLAND AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, THESE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. THE
GREATEST RISK WILL BE CONFINED TO A PORTION OF EASTERN KANSAS AND
NORTHERN MISSOURI, WHERE THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED
A BRAND NEW MODERATE RISK (THREAT LEVEL 3/4) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. THIS MODERATE RISK INCLUDES THE TOPEKA AND KANSAS CITY
METRO AREAS. OUTSIDE OF THE MODERATE RISK, A SLIGHT RISK (THREAT
LEVEL 2/4) REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON EAST
TO THE CHICAGOLAND METRO AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS NOT LIKELY TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS ON FRIDAY, MAKING IT POSSIBLE
FOR SIMILAR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST THAT WERE HIT WITH STORMS ON
THURSDAY TO POSSIBLY SEE ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY. WPC
MAINTAINS A SLIGHT RISK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON EAST THROUGH
THE HEART OF THE MIDWEST. IN ADDITION, SOME STORMS MAY POTENTIALLY
BECOME SEVERE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A LENGTHY MARGINAL
RISK (THREAT LEVEL 1/5) FROM THE ROCKIES' FRONT RANGE TO THE GREAT
LAKES, WITH A SLIGHT RISK (THREAT LEVEL 2/5) IN PLACE FROM WESTERN
MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE SEVERE THREAT MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY WITH A MARGINAL RISK AND SLIGHT RISK
ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST'S I-95 CORRIDOR. ADDITIONAL
SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
IN THE SOUTH, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST ALONG THE GULF
COAST CONTAINING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT WILL SPAWN ADDITIONAL
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON
EAST THROUGH MUCH OF FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO MARCH WEST TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST ON
FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL DOWNPOURS LIKELY ALONG THE GULF COAST. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE
CAROLINAS THANKS TO A NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER IS CARRYING A MARGINAL RISK (THREAT LEVEL 1/4)
FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON, WHILE A MARGINAL RISK REMAINS IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN ALONG
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE WEST IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY AND
SEASONALLY COOL CONDITIONS, THE EXCEPTION TO THE DRY CONDITIONS IS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON EAST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. A
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW WILL DIRECT MOISTURE AT THE REGION WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP. DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE A
GROWING CONCERN IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WHERE CRITICALLY DRY FUELS ARE PRESENT AND
LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD SPARK WILDFIRES IN THESE REGIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. SPC HIGHLIGHTS THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AS HAVING THE
BETTER ODDS OF WITNESSING DRY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BECOMES MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE ON
FRIDAY, BUT THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL PERSISTS FROM THE NORTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA TO AS FAR NORTH AS IDAHO'S SNAKE RIVER VALLEY.
MILLER/MULLINAX
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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