659
FXUS01 KWBC 250812
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
412 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2025
VALID 12Z FRI JUL 25 2025 - 12Z SUN JUL 27 2025
...HEAVY RAIN, FLASH FLOODING, AND SEVERE WEATHER PROBABLE FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST...
...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG MUCH OF THE GULF COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY...
..DANGEROUS HEATWAVE DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND
A SLOW MOVING SURFACE FRONT BENEATH A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE WILL PRODUCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO THE NORTHEAST, WITHIN A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT TODAY. STORMS
OCCURRING OVER RELATIVELY SATURATED SOILS MAY POSE A FLASH
FLOODING THREAT, WHICH IS WHY A SLIGHT RISK (AT LEAST 15% CHANCE)
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS,
NORTHERN MISSOURI, SOUTHERN IOWA, ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. A WAVE OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST TODAY MAY DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PHILADELPHIA TO BOSTON SECTION OF
THE 1-95 CORRIDOR, WHERE A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) WAS ISSUED BY
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS FROM ANY STORMS THAT IMPACT THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT DIMINISHES BY SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES, WHERE SOILS
ARE DRIER AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE LESS AMENABLE TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
GULF COAST. TROUGHING ALONG THE COAST HAS OFFERED A LIFTING
MECHANISM FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT/ORGANIZATION OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS, BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN AS AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE VICINITY
STRENGTHENS. 1-3 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE ANTICIPATED FROM
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING. FORTUNATELY, THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING REMAINS
MARGINAL DUE TO THE RELATIVELY LOW RAIN RATES, RESILIENT SOILS AND
EFFICIENT RUNOFF METHODS.
UNUSUAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHILE BUILDING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-SOUTH THIS WEEKEND. HEAT WILL BE MOST
PERSISTENT AND DANGEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT HEAT WILL REACH LEVELS THAT
WOULD AFFECT ANYONE WITHOUT SUFFICIENT COOLING AND/OR ADEQUATE
HYDRATION, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS INCLUDES HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER-90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES, WITH HEAT
INDICES POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 110-115 DEGREES. THIS WILL BE A LONG
DURATION HEAT WAVE, WITH LITTLE TO NO OVERNIGHT RELIEF AND HIGH
HUMIDITY LEVELS, LEADING TO AN INCREASED DANGER.
KEBEDE
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