208
FXUS06 KWBC 251902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI JULY 25 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 31 - AUG 04, 2025
THE ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL 500-HPA
HEIGHT PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS, WITH ONLY SMALL
CHANGES RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY’S 6-10 DAY FORECAST PATTERN. THE MANUAL HEIGHT
BLEND IS BASED ON 0Z ENSEMBLE MEANS, WEIGHING THE ECMWF MODEL GREATER DUE TO
RECENT MODEL ANOMALY CORRELATION SKILL. THE MANUAL BLEND SHOWS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC, WHICH ARE SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED IN TODAY’S MODEL
FORECASTS. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS
AND MAINLAND ALASKA. A RIDGE IS PREDICTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS), WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS INTO PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE MANUAL BLEND. A WEAK TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES THAT IS PREDICTED TO
BE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS BY ALL ENSEMBLE MEANS PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD
AND DEAMPLIFIES DURING THE PERIOD.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, MAINLAND
ALASKA, AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, UNDER NEAR AVERAGE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, UNDER THE PREDICTED RIDGE.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA UNDER
THE WEAK TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST, THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS, AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH
REFORECAST-CALIBRATED GEFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, UNDER ANOMALOUS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
PREDICTED TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR
HAWAII, WITH ABOVE AVERAGE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND THE ISLANDS.
CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED GEFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS, BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA,
WHILE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA
AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
MODELS FORECAST ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS, WHILE
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHWESTERN AREAS OF THE NORTHEAST, UNDER NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. NEAR
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII, WHERE THE AUTO AND CONSOLIDATION
TOOLS ARE INCONSISTENT.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN ENSEMBLE MODELS ON THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN
FORECAST, OFFSET BY SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 02 - 08 2025
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FOR THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA
DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT, WHILE THE OVERALL
PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES. A RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, WITH
SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MODELS. A TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AT THE START OF WEEK 2, BUT DEAMPLIFIES DURING THE
PERIOD. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES PERSIST INTO WEEK 2 OVER MOST OF
ALASKA, WITH NEAR AVERAGE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS PREDICTED NEAR THE SOUTH COAST FROM
THE ALEUTIANS TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA IN THE MANUAL BLEND.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF ALASKA UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PANHANDLE, AHEAD OF A
PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS, ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ALONG
THE GULF COAST, UNDER A PREDICTED RIDGE AND CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE
CONSOLIDATION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE
NORTHERN CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS, UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SUPPORTED
BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN WEEK 2, SUPPORTED BY THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR NORTHWESTERN AND INTERIOR MAINLAND
ALASKA INTO WEEK 2, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AHEAD OF A
TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS IN WEEK 2 WITH AN EXPANDED AREA OF FAVORED NEAR NORMAL OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, SUPPORTED BY MOST MODEL FORECASTS. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII
WITH DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE AUTO AND CONSOLIDATION FORECASTS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FORECAST, OFFSET BY A
DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN AND WEAK SIGNALS IN THE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE
TOOLS FOR MANY AREAS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19810729 - 19720721 - 19610729 - 19860724 - 20030706
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19810729 - 19860723 - 19960806 - 19720721 - 20030705
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 31 - AUG 04, 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO A A NEVADA B N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING N A
UTAH N A ARIZONA A A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B
MASS B B CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A B
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 02 - 08 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A B
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page