274
FXUS01 KWBC 252005
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
404 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2025
VALID 00Z SAT JUL 26 2025 - 00Z MON JUL 28 2025
...HEAVY RAIN, FLASH FLOODING, AND SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST...
..HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH SATURDAY
..DANGEROUS HEATWAVE DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND
A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND. STORMS DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHTâ€FROM EASTERN KANSAS AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEYâ€ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
(WPC) IS MAINTAINING A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS, FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA,
AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI, WHERE NUMEROUS FLASH FLOODING EVENTS
ARE LIKELY. A BROADER SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) EXTENDS EASTWARD
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE
KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN, DAMAGING WINDS
AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI THIS EVENING.
FARTHER EAST, THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHWARD TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH THE
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IS LOWER IN THIS AREA, THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER (SPC) IS HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDSâ€PARTICULARLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM PHILADELPHIA TO
BOSTONâ€AS STORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONT.
BY SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY, THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES, WHILE STALLING OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY,
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND MID-ATLANTIC. WITH A SUPPORTIVE
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE, THE RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL PERSISTâ€ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS THREAT EXTENDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF COAST
WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION INTO INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLEâ€ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
IN THE WEST, AN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN SIERRA INTO THE GREAT
BASIN INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODINGâ€PARTICULARLY IN COMPLEX
TERRAIN AND AREAS RECENTLY AFFECTED BY WILDFIRES. A FEW STORMS MAY
ALSO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, BRINGING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.
A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
BRING A RISING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH
RISKS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.
EXTREME HEAT WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES, ELEVATED HUMIDITY, AND
MINIMAL OVERNIGHT COOLING WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED
ILLNESSES. EXTREME HEATRISK LEVELS ARE FORECAST FOR SEVERAL METRO
AREASâ€INCLUDING RALEIGH-DURHAM, CHARLOTTE, AND
GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURGâ€STARTING THIS WEEKEND AND LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEK
PEREIRA
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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