960
FXUS01 KWBC 261956
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
356 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2025
VALID 00Z SUN JUL 27 2025 - 00Z TUE JUL 29 2025
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS, NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/LOWER GREAT
LAKES, AND NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS, NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC ON
SATURDAY AND PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY...
ON SATURDAY, A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES BY MONDAY
EVENING. IN ADDITION, ON SATURDAY, A SECOND FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TO
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY. THE NORTHERN FRONT WILL
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND
A FEW TORNADOES.
THE EASTERN FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, AND A MINIMAL THREAT OF
HAIL AND TORNADOES.
MOREOVER, TROPICAL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC TO
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS FRONT WILL PRODUCE MULTIPLE AREAS
OF HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS,
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/LOWER GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST. THEREFORE,
THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS, NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC/LOWER GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL PRIMARILY CREATE LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS,
AND LOW-LYING AREAS BEING THE MOST VULNERABLE.
FURTHERMORE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND THE
SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY.
ON SUNDAY, SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES NEAR
THE FRONT. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5)
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE
HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOES.
ADDITIONALLY, ON SUNDAY, INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ACCOMPANIED BY
HEAVY RAIN, OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL PRIMARILY CREATE
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL
STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS BEING THE MOST VULNERABLE.
FURTHERMORE, ON SUNDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY, EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST, DUE TO TROPICAL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT. MULTIPLE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS, NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST. THEREFORE, THE
WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS, NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL PRIMARILY
CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS,
SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS BEING THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ADDITIONALLY, ON SUNDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND
MOST OF THE GULF COAST.
MOREOVER, AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL AID IN
PRODUCING DANGEROUS HIGH TEMPERATURES, ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH
HUMIDITY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI/OHIO
VALLEYS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
TENNESSEE VALLEY, AS WELL AS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST.
EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS, HEAT ADVISORIES, AND EXTREME HEAT WATCHES
ARE OVER THESE REGIONS THROUGH MONDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
EXTREME HEAT AND MINIMAL NIGHTTIME RELIEF CAN LEAD TO CUMULATIVE
HEAT STRESS ON THE BODY. AS TEMPERATURES RISE, PLAN TO LIMIT
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, STAY HYDRATED, AND ENSURE ACCESS TO AIR
CONDITIONING AND OTHER COOLING AREAS. ADDITIONALLY, BE SURE TO
CHECK ON VULNERABLE FAMILY MEMBERS, FRIENDS, AND NEIGHBORS.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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