609
FXUS01 KWBC 270648
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
247 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2025
VALID 12Z SUN JUL 27 2025 - 12Z TUE JUL 29 2025
...DANGEROUS, LONG-LASTING EXTREME HEAT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIS WEEK...
...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST, OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC TODAY...
A GROWING UPPER RIDGE IN THE SOUTH WILL SEND MOIST SOUTHERLY AIR
NORTHWARD, WHERE IT'LL INTERACT WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO FORM SOMEWHERE IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND
POTENTIALLY CONGEAL INTO A SOUTHWARD-MOVING MCS TONIGHT. THERE'S A
SLIGHT RISK (AT LEAST 15% CHANCE) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO
FLASH FLOODING OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA WHERE
SATURATED SOILS ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO RUNOFF. THERE'S ALSO A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MANY OF THE
SAME AREAS, DUE TO THE THREAT OF WIND-DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL. SOME WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
RIDGE SHOULD GENERATE SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON,
WHERE RELATIVELY HIGH SOIL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR GREATER
CHANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. A SLIGHT RISK EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN
EFFECT FROM EASTERN MISSOURI TO SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA/WEST
VIRGINIA AND FROM SOUTHERN NEW YORK TO FAR SOUTHERN MARYLAND TO
REFLECT THESE CONDITIONS.
THE HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER THREATS SHIFT A BIT TO THE SOUTH
ON MONDAY TO ENCOMPASS PORTIONS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA WHERE SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN EFFECT. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER CITED CONCERNS FOR HAIL AND A POTENTIAL TORNADO
IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHILE SEVERE
WIND POTENTIAL AND ISOLATED MARGINAL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO WORK IT'S WAY INTO THE SOUTHWEST WHERE MARGINAL RISK
(AT LEAST 5% CHANCE) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXTREME HEAT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
AND TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY, WITH THE MOST DANGEROUS COMBINATION OF
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY OCCURRING FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PROLONGED AND EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS
HEAT WAVE. HEAT LEVELS WILL BECOME DANGEROUS FOR ANYONE WITHOUT
ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO
THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES ("FEELS LIKE"
TEMPERATURES) SURPASSING 110-115 DEGREES. SEVERAL MAJOR
METROPOLITAN AREAS--INCLUDING RALEIGH, CHARLOTTE, NASHVILLE AND
ORLANDO--ARE EXPECTED TO FACE EXTREME HEATRISK FOR MULTIPLE DAYS,
WITH OVER 20 MILLION PEOPLE IMPACTED AT THE PEAK.
KEBEDE
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