157
FXUS01 KWBC 271901
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
301 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2025
VALID 00Z MON JUL 28 2025 - 00Z WED JUL 30 2025
....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI, OHIO VALLEYS, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES, ON SUNDAY, NORTHERN PLAINS,
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY...
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY AND OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, NORTHERN
PLAINS, AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY...
ON SUNDAY, A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TO THE NORTHEAST, GREAT LAKES, MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK
(LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE
HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOES. THERE IS AN ADDED THREAT OF HAIL TWO INCHES OR GREATER
OVER THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY, SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, A FEW TORNADOES, AND A MINIMAL THREAT OF
HAIL.
MOREOVER, TROPICAL MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC TO
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN
OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI, OHIO VALLEYS, AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI,
OHIO VALLEYS, AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL PRIMARILY CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND
LOW-LYING AREAS BEING THE MOST VULNERABLE.
FURTHERMORE, A THIRD AREA OF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN
WILL PRIMARILY CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH
URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS BEING THE
MOST VULNERABLE. ALSO, ON SUNDAY, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.
ON MONDAY, SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS/NORTHERN ROCKIES MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. THERE IS AN
ADDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 65 KNOTS OR
GREATER OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
ADDITIONALLY, ON MONDAY, INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ACCOMPANIED BY
HEAVY RAIN, OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL PRIMARILY CREATE
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL
STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS BEING THE MOST VULNERABLE.
FURTHERMORE, ON TUESDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS,
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS, AND THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS, AND THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL PRIMARILY
CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS,
SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS BEING THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ADDITIONALLY, ON TUESDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
MOREOVER, AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST EXTENDS WESTWARD
TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL AID IN PRODUCING DANGEROUS HIGH
TEMPERATURES, ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH HUMIDITY FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY, AS WELL AS THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST. EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS, HEAT
ADVISORIES, AND EXTREME HEAT WATCHES ARE OVER THESE REGIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF EXTREME HEAT AND MINIMAL
NIGHTTIME RELIEF CAN LEAD TO CUMULATIVE HEAT STRESS ON THE BODY.
AS TEMPERATURES RISE, PLAN TO LIMIT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, STAY
HYDRATED, AND ENSURE ACCESS TO AIR CONDITIONING AND OTHER COOLING
AREAS. ADDITIONALLY, BE SURE TO CHECK ON VULNERABLE FAMILY
MEMBERS, FRIENDS, AND NEIGHBORS.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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