205
FXUS06 KWBC 281917
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON JULY 28 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 03 - 07 2025
THE ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MODELS BROADLY AGREE ON THE 500-HPA
HEIGHT PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS, WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES ON THE LOCATION OF LARGE-SCALE FEATURES. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS
BASED ON 0Z ENSEMBLE MEANS, WEIGHING THE ECMWF MODEL GREATER DUE TO RECENT
MODEL ANOMALY CORRELATION SKILL. THE MANUAL BLEND SHOWS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES CENTERED OVER THE ALEUTIANS
EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTS A CENTER OF
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES SOUTH OF THE ALASKAN PENINSULA, WHILE THE
ECMWF PREDICTS A NEGATIVE 500-HPA ANOMALY CENTERED OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND A
SECOND ANOMALY CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA. IN THE MANUAL BLEND OF
MODELS, A WEAK TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN INTERIOR OF THE
CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS), WHILE A RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE ALSO PREDICTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS IN ALL MODEL FORECASTS AND THE
MANUAL BLEND.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MAINLAND ALASKA AND NORTHERN AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS, UNDER A WEAK TROUGH
AND CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST, PARTS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
UNDER THE PREDICTED RIDGE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER FROM EASTERN MONTANA, TO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST,
UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
FOR MOST OF FLORIDA, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED GEFS AND
ECMWF TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF
THE EASTERN CONUS FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE CAROLINAS, MID-ATLANTIC,
AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL TEMPERATURE
TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE
TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA,
WHILE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE SOUTH COAST,
EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND FAVORED INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY
FAVORED THROUGH MOST OF THE CENTRAL CONUS, FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST, CONSISTENT WITH THE REFORECAST
CALIBRATED FORECASTS FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF MODELS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, SUPPORTED PRIMARILY BY THE ECMWF
PRECIPITATION FORECAST. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHWEST
AND THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, UNDER A PREDICTED RIDGE, AND FOR MOST OF THE
NORTHEAST, UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN ENSEMBLE MODELS ON THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN
FORECAST, OFFSET BY SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 05 - 11 2025
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FOR THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA
REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, WHILE THE OVERALL
PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES. A BROAD TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKAN
PENINSULA AND MAINLAND ALASKA BY ENSEMBLE MODELS, WITH THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
PREDICTING GREATER AMPLITUDE NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES THAN THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE CONUS BY ALL ENSEMBLE MODELS, WITH SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODEL
FORECASTS. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTS A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE
CONUS, WHILE THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTS A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA, EXCEPT FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN COAST, WHERE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRETY OF THE CONUS IN WEEK 2, UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES FROM COAST TO COAST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY
FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, AS A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE REGION
DEAMPLIFIES.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF WESTERN
MAINLAND ALASKA INTO WEEK 2, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO WEEK 2, AS A WEAK
TROUGH TO THE WEST DEAMPLIFIES. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS SLIGHTLY
FAVORED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, ACROSS THE MIDWEST,
AND FOR WESTERN AREAS OF THE NORTHEAST, CONSISTENT WITH GEFS AND ECMWF
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, CONSISTENT WITH CALIBRATED ECMWF PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH
THE CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FORECAST, OFFSET BY A
DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN AND WEAK SIGNALS IN THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS FOR MOST AREAS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19600710 - 19770718 - 19710708 - 20070810 - 19860719
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19600711 - 19710707 - 20070810 - 19770717 - 19530723
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 03 - 07 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B B
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING N A
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA N A OHIO N N KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK N B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP N B MAINE A B
MASS N B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 05 - 11 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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