435
FXUS01 KWBC 281958
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
357 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2025
VALID 00Z TUE JUL 29 2025 - 00Z THU JUL 31 2025
...SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA, SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, AND NORTHERN IOWA...
...DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S. BEFORE RELIEF BEGINS TO ENTER THE NORTHERN TIER ON
WEDNESDAY...
...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONCERNS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, ROCKIES, AND MIDWEST INTO MIDWEEK...
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED
BY A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S.,
DRIVING OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE NATION AS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PIVOTS CLOCKWISE
AROUND ITS PERIPHERY. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SEVERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 4/5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, SOUTHERN MINNESOTA,
AND NORTHERN IOWA, WHERE THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO
75-90 MPH. ADDITIONALLY, A FEW TORNADOES, ISOLATED LARGE HAIL, AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN
THIS EVENING. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN WEATHER
AWARE TONIGHT AND HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS OF RECEIVING WARNINGS.
THIS LARGE UPPER-RIDGE WILL BE MORE SO ASSOCIATED WITH THE SULTRY
HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPERIENCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S. FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL DAYS. FOR TOMORROW (TUESDAY),
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST,
INCLUDING THE THE HIGHLY POPULATED I-95 CORRIDOR FROM WASHINGTON
D.C. TO BOSTON. IN FACT, NUMEROUS DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE OPPRESSIVE LATE-JULY HUMIDITY
LEVELS, MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE
100 DEGREES AND EVEN ABOVE 110 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST. ONE OF THE MORE DANGEROUS
ASPECTS OF THIS HEAT WAVE IS THE LACK OF RELIEF OVERNIGHT. DUE TO
THE ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
DROP BELOW THE MID-70S, WITH LOWS AROUND 80 DEGREES POSSIBLE IN
URBAN AREAS. THIS CAN INCREASE THE STRAIN ON INFRASTRUCTURE AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS FOR THOSE WITHOUT ACCESS TO
COOL SHELTERS. FORTUNATELY, AN END TO THIS LATE-JULY HEAT WAVE IS
IN SIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BE SURE TO CONTINUE FOLLOWING PROPER
HEAT SAFETY AND CHECK ON VULNERABLE FRIENDS, FAMILY MEMBERS, AND
NEIGHBORS.
LIKE MUCH OF THIS JULY SO FAR, FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN ACROSS PARTS OF THE COUNTRY TO END THE MONTH. FOLLOWING
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST, AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES,
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE MORE CHANCES FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO RAPID RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST. CURRENTLY, A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT ON TUESDAY
FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA TO WESTERN IOWA.
BY WEDNESDAY, THIS RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SHIFTS INTO THE
MIDWEST AND CENTERS OVER IOWA, NORTHERN MISSOURI, AND ILLINOIS.
MEANWHILE, A SEPARATE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING IS LOCATED ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND
COLORADO WHERE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTAIN INTENSE RAINFALL RATES, ESPECIALLY AS THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD AND PROVIDES AN
ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HERE, A SLIGHT RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT ACROSS PARTS OF NEW MEXICO ON
TUESDAY AND INTO EASTERN COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY.
SNELL
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