295
FXUS01 KWBC 301937
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
336 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2025
VALID 00Z THU JUL 31 2025 - 00Z SAT AUG 02 2025
... CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOODING ON THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR
FROM AROUND WASHINGTON D.C. TO NEW YORK CITY...
...RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WAVE WILL BEGIN AROUND THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST AND CENTRAL U.S. AS A SEASONABLY
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...
...A STALLING FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL PROVIDE BOUTS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORMY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND, INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLASH FLOODING...
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST (THE WASHINGTON
DC METRO NORTHWARDS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE THE MAIN AREA
OF CONCERN) WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE TO SET THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOODING EVENT. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL INCLUDE A SEASONABLY
STRONG FRONT, A FORMING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, AND HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT IT IS
REASONABLE TO ASSERT THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD LOCALLY EXCEED 5
INCHES OF RAINFALL, INCLUDING SENSITIVE URBAN AREAS. GIVEN THE
CEILING FOR A HIGH END RAINFALL EVENT AND THE SENSITIVITY OF
POPULATED URBAN CENTERS, WPC HAS ISSUED A MODERATE RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR AREAS DISCUSSED ABOVE. TURN AROUND, DON'T
DROWN.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING INTENSE HEAT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT, AT LEAST DURING THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER, MOVES SOUTHWARD
INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON THURSDAY AND THEN STALLS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY. FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST,
TEMPERATURES MAY BE AS MUCH AS 10-20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SEE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 50S TO LOW 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CLEAR THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT
IN THE 70S WITH MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE
URBAN CORRIDOR AND 50S FOR INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
STATES LIKE TEXAS AND FLORIDA WILL NOT SEE MUCH RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT. TEXAS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S PERSIST
FOR THE WEEKEND, WHILE FLORIDA CONTINUES TO HAVE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH MIDDLE 90S POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
HEAT INDICES OVER 100 WITH SUMMER HUMIDITY OVER THE REGION.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORMY WEATHER WILL MOVE SOUTHWARDS WITH THE
COLD FRONT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN OVER THE REGION. A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA ON FRIDAY, AND A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
SAGS SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS THE LOW COUNTRY OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA, AS WELL AS NORTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE A HAZARD WITH STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE COUNTRY, THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF
THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST AND A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. THESE INGREDIENTS WILL BOOST
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER DOES HAVE A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG STORMS ON
THURSDAY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AS SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS AND SOME INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL ACCORDING TO SPC.
WILDER
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