500
FXUS01 KWBC 050747
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
346 AM EDT TUE AUG 05 2025
VALID 12Z TUE AUG 05 2025 - 12Z THU AUG 07 2025
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...
...AIR QUALITY ALERTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST...
...THERE ARE EXTREME HEAT WATCHES, EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS, AND HEAT
ADVISORIES OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
SOUTHWEST...
A FRONT LINGERING FROM THE SOUTHEAST WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST
TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE FRONT AND TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAIN, OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL PRIMARILY CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND
LOW-LYING AREAS BEING THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ADDITIONALLY, ON TUESDAY, ANOTHER WEAK FRONT OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA BEFORE DISSIPATING ON
THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM, COMBINED WITH A STEADY SOURCE OF MOISTURE,
WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND OCCASIONAL TORNADOES.
FURTHERMORE, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AS WELL AS
THE NORTHEAST, ON TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE, A FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, MOVING EASTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, ROUGHLY SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
BY THURSDAY. THE STORM WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND RAIN OVER PARTS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT, WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL AID IN CREATING SHOWERS AND RAIN
OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
MOREOVER, ON WEDNESDAY, TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST,
ALONG WITH A LINGERING BOUNDARY, WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH
HEAVY RAIN.
IN ADDITION, THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5)
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A MINIMAL
THREAT OF TORNADOES.
FURTHERMORE, MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THEREFORE, THE WPC
HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAIN WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, AFFECTING
AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY RAIN.
MOREOVER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST AND
PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN ROCKIES,
AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE, SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN
CANADA HAS PROMPTED AIR QUALITY ALERTS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE NORTHEAST/NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
FURTHERMORE, AN INTENSIFYING UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST
WILL PRODUCE UPWARD-TRENDING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID-110S BY TUESDAY.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT HEAT IS FORECAST TO FOCUS OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH WIDESPREAD MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT RISK. A
WIDESPREAD MAJOR TO LOCALLY EXTREME HEAT RISK WILL ALSO EXTEND
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THERE ARE EXTREME HEAT WATCHES AND
EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND
THE SOUTHWEST.
FURTHERMORE, HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA, SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO, AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS. STAY
INFORMED AND TAKE STEPS TO PROTECT YOURSELF FROM HEAT-RELATED
ILLNESSES. FOR INFORMATION ON STAYING COOL AND SAFE, VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY/HEAT. AS TEMPERATURES RISE, LIMIT OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY, STAY HYDRATED, AND ENSURE ACCESS TO AIR-CONDITIONING AND
OTHER COOLING AREAS.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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