953
FXUS01 KWBC 060708
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
307 AM EDT WED AUG 06 2025
VALID 12Z WED AUG 06 2025 - 12Z FRI AUG 08 2025
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY...
...AIR QUALITY ALERTS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...
...THERE ARE EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER PARTS
OF SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST...
A FRONT LINGERING FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FRONT AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ACCOMPANIED BY
HEAVY RAIN, OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN
WILL PRIMARILY CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH
URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS BEING THE
MOST VULNERABLE.
ADDITIONALLY, ON WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES,
SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN ROCKIES
BY THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM, COMBINED WITH A STEADY SOURCE OF
MOISTURE, WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND
A MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES. FURTHERMORE, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY
WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE GREAT LAKES, THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS,
AS WELL AS THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL/WESTERN GULF COAST ON
WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE, A THIRD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY, MOVING EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND DISSIPATING BY
THURSDAY. THE ENERGY WILL MERGE WITH THE SECOND FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/SOUTHWEST, MOVING EASTWARD TO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN BY FRIDAY. THE STORM WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT, WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL AID IN CREATING SHOWERS AND RAIN
OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION INTO THURSDAY.
MOREOVER, ON THURSDAY, TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST, ALONG
WITH A LINGERING BOUNDARY, WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING,
PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF DUE TO HEAVY
RAIN.
IN ADDITION, THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND
OCCASIONAL TORNADOES. THERE IS AN ADDED THREAT OF HAIL TWO INCHES
OR GREATER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA, NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA, AND
EXTREME EASTERN MONTANA.
FURTHERMORE, MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS
ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF DUE
TO HEAVY RAIN.
MOREOVER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST AND
PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST,
SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE, SMOKE
FROM WILDFIRES IN CANADA HAS PROMPTED AIR QUALITY ALERTS OVER
PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, UPPER GREAT LAKES, AND THE
NORTHEAST/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY.
FURTHERMORE, AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL PRODUCE
UPWARD-TRENDING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID-110S ON WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT HEAT IS FORECAST TO FOCUS
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH WIDESPREAD MAJOR TO EXTREME
HEAT RISK. A WIDESPREAD MAJOR TO LOCALLY EXTREME HEAT RISK WILL
ALSO EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THERE ARE EXTREME HEAT
WARNINGS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST.
FURTHERMORE, HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA, SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO, AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.
STAY INFORMED AND TAKE STEPS TO PROTECT YOURSELF FROM HEAT-RELATED
ILLNESSES. FOR INFORMATION ON STAYING COOL AND SAFE, VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY/HEAT. AS TEMPERATURES RISE, LIMIT OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY, STAY HYDRATED, AND ENSURE ACCESS TO AIR-CONDITIONING AND
OTHER COOLING AREAS.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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