347
FXUS01 KWBC 061814
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
213 PM EDT WED AUG 06 2025
VALID 00Z THU AUG 07 2025 - 00Z SAT AUG 09 2025
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...
...THERE IS A ENHANCED SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
...CANADIAN SMOKE REMAINS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST RESULTING IN AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
...EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST...
...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO CENTRAL
ROCKIES...
A BROAD FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
SOUTHERN GEORGIA, ALABAMA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA; ITS STAGNATION
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS RESULTED IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND TODAY APPEARS TO BE THE END
OF HIGHEST COVERAGE OF INTENSE RAINFALL FOR A FEW DAYS. A SHARP
DIP IN THE UPPER-LEVEL JET PATTERN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FILL AND
WITH VERY DEEP MOISTURE AND THE FRONTAL ZONE FOR FORCING, STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AND
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL (LEVEL 2 OF 4) PLACED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA WITH A BOUNDING MARGINAL RISK BACK TO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA. AS NOTED, SLOW
WEAKENING OF THE FORCING WILL REDUCE COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK WITH SIMILAR PLACEMENT OF MARGINAL RISKS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG COASTAL CAROLINAS, GEORGIA AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA. HOWEVER, ATTENTION WILL BE DRAWN OFF THE COAST
FOR SOME CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT THAT MAY RESULT IN EVENTUAL
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT (NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER PRESENTS A 10%
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48HRS SLOWLY INCREASING TO 40%
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK).
A POTENT CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CAN BE SEEN JUST NORTH OF
VANCOUVER ISLAND WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO AND HUG THE
CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRAW
INCREASED MOISTURE AND HEAT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS; THOUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND NORTHERN ROCKIES BY
FRIDAY WILL SEE WELL BELOW AVERAGE (10-20 DEGREES) TEMPERATURES
SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE UPPER-LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE.
HOWEVER, BY THURSDAY, THE ELEMENTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH AN ENHANCED SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 3 OF 5) FOR MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH A BOUNDING SLIGHT
RISK EXTENDING BACK INTO EASTERN MONTANA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS, BUT THERE IS SOME SOLID POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES AS
WELL. BY FRIDAY, A SIMILAR SET OF CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT BUT
SLIGHTLY SHIFTED EASTWARD CENTERED IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE
DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA; WITH DECREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH
INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA (MARGINAL RISK, LEVEL 1 OF 5) AND WESTERN
IOWA. SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SEVERE ZONE, ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL RISK TO ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
SOME 100F TEMPS EXPECTED IN W KS ON THURSDAY,
IN THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST; A PERSISTENTLY
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN DOMINATING WITH VERY UNSEASONABLE
BUT PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, WITH THE BENEFIT OF
COOLER CANADIAN FLOW COMES WITH THE PERSISTENT AND POTENTIALLY
UNHEALTHY AIR QUALITY DUE TO THE LARGE ONGOING FOREST FIRES.
GOES-EAST IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE PORTION OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST WITH COPIOUS SMOKE WITH MOST DENSE ACROSS PORTION OF
LOWER MICHIGAN, ONTARIO INTO NEW YORK, SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
OUT TOWARDS TROPICAL STORM DEXTER (WHICH IS WELL SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA). WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE, SOME OF THIS SMOKE IS REACHING
THE SURFACE AND REDUCING AIR QUALITY, AND AS SUCH, AIR QUALITY
ALERTS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN, CHICAGOLAND
AREA OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS, SOUTHERN NEW YORK, CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA AND PARTS OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
IN THE SOUTHWEST, THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE HAS BEEN SLOWLY
BREAKING DOWN BUT TODAY AND TOMORROW (THURSDAY) CONTINUE TO
POTENTIALLY BREAK RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ARIZONA, INLAND EMPIRE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND NEW MEXICO
FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE 105-118 DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURE. THE DOME
WILL NOT NECESSARILY BREAK BUT REDUCE SLIGHTLY BY FRIDAY WITH HIGH
BUT ONLY ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. NORTH OF THE EXTREME
HEAT, MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN OF NEVADA INTO UTAH, WYOMING AND
WESTERN COLORADO ARE UNDER RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. REDUCED RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONGER WINDS
DUE TO THE APPROACHING CLOSED LOW IN THE NORTHERN STREAM/NORTHWEST
RESULT IN CRITICAL (LEVEL 2 OF 3) FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
TODAY AND TOMORROW AS ISSUED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.
STAY INFORMED AND TAKE STEPS TO PROTECT YOURSELF FROM HEAT-RELATED
ILLNESSES. FOR INFORMATION ON STAYING COOL AND SAFE, VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY/HEAT. AS TEMPERATURES RISE, LIMIT OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY, STAY HYDRATED, AND ENSURE ACCESS TO AIR-CONDITIONING AND
OTHER COOLING AREAS.
GALLINA
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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