183
FXUS06 KWBC 061902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED AUGUST 06 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 12 - 16 2025
THE 0Z GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE ENSEMBLES DEPICT A POSITIVE NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION (+NAO) AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH ABOVE-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST EXTENDING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND
BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS AT THE HIGHER LATITUDES OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH BROAD RIDGING EXPANDING
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. RIDGING IS INITIALLY FAVORED ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC, BUT WITH SOME RETROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE FAVORING
LOWERING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WEST AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES. THE GEFS
IS MORE ROBUST WITH AMPLIFIED TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER ALASKA BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD AND ERODING THE RIDGE COMPARED TO THE ECENS AND CMCE WHICH MAINTAIN
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES TO THE SOUTH OF ALASKA ON DAY-10. TODAY’S 6-10 DAY
MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS WEAKLY POSITIVE (+30 METER) HEIGHT ANOMALIES ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WEST THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NEAR- TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE INDICATED OVER ALASKA.
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ELEVATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (GREATER THAN 70
PERCENT) OVER THE NORTHEAST TIED TO ENHANCED RIDGING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
AND LARGE POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES PREDICTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD. WHILE
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED ACROSS THE WEST, MODERATION IS
ANTICIPATED AS THE RIDGE RETROGRADES FURTHER INTO THE PACIFIC AND MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS DECREASE ALONG THE COAST. ANALOG GUIDANCE AND THE ECENS REFORECAST TOOL
SUPPORT ELEVATED CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION DESPITE MUCH OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, AND THIS PATTERN IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY TELECONNECTION ANALYSIS
WITH THE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC.
THEREFORE, A GREATER EXTENT OF NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS HIGHLIGHTED OVER THE
REGION COMPARED TO THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR ALASKA, SUPPORTED BY NEARLY ALL OF
THE FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR HAWAII
ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE-NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), ESPECIALLY FOR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.
A TRANQUIL PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD, WITH OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES AND FRONTAL SYSTEMS SUPPORTING ENHANCED
CHANCES OF NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. WEAK PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN, STILL FORECAST TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ENHANCED MOISTURE TIED TO EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE
ACTIVITY SLIGHTLY INCREASES THE ODDS OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST, WITH MONSOON ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY RETURNING LATER IN WEEK-2.
NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS HIGHLIGHTED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST, DUE TO
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION PREDICTED TO OCCUR PRIOR TO THE START OF THE PERIOD, AND
THE GEFS AND ECENS DEPICTING A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC REMAINING OVER OPEN WATERS. AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS
ALASKA TIED TO A STRONG MID-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE, WITH
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING 40 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
WESTERN HAWAII, AS NEARBY TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE MAY PROMOTE INCREASED
MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AROUND THE OUTSET OF THE
PERIOD, FOLLOWED BY PASSAGE OF ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW. CONVERSELY,
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE BIG ISLAND, FURTHER
DISPLACED FROM THE PROJECTED STORM TRACK.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG TODAY’S ENSEMBLE MEANS, BUT OFFSET BY WEAKENING
PRECIPITATION SIGNALS ACROSS THE CONUS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 14 - 20 2025
DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE TOWARD A LOW AMPLITUDE, BROAD MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS DURING WEEK-2, AND WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THE LARGEST POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED TO EMERGE ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH THE HEIGHT MAXIMUM BECOMING
SITUATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. THE LARGEST UNCERTAINTY IS ACROSS ALASKA WHERE
THE 0Z GEFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT MORE TROUGHING ACROSS THE STATE COMPARED TO THE
0Z ECENS AND CMCE, WHICH PERSIST RIDGING OVER THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS
WELL INTO WEEK-2. THE WEEK-2 500-HPA MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS +30 METER
HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXPANDING FURTHER ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS COMPARED TO
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. WEAKLY POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE ALSO INDICATED OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, EXTENDING THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS. CLOSER TO NORMAL
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AND OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA.
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED ACROSS
MOST OF THE CONUS DURING WEEK-2 UNDERNEATH DOMINANT LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING AND
SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS AND ECENS REFORECAST TOOLS. AS IN THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK,
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE STATISTICAL TOOLS (ANALOG
AND TELECONNECTION) SUPPORT INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TIED TO INCREASING TROUGHING NEAR THE WEST COAST AND DOWNSTREAM OF RIDGING OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. THEREFORE, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. NEAR- TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE INCREASED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TIED
TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENTIAL INCREASE IN
THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FOR MOST
OF ALASKA DUE TO A CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN AND SUPPORTED BY MOST
FORECAST TOOLS. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED
ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION FORECAST TOOL.
THERE ARE LIMITED SYNOPTIC FEATURES DRIVING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CONUS
DURING WEEK-2 MAKING FOR A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WEAK PROBABILITIES
FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS TIED
TO INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING AND SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED PRECIPITATION MOVING OVERTOP THE RIDGE. THESE WEAK
PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO EXTENDED INTO THE SOUTHEAST GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH ANY U.S. IMPACTS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS LEAD. NEAR-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS
DUE TO WEAK SIGNALS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE RIDGE AXIS IS PREDICTED TO MOVE
INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON BY THE SECOND HALF OF
THE PERIOD FAVORING A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ENHANCED ODDS OF ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ODDS ARE ENHANCED OVER MUCH
OF THE WEST UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING RIDGE. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TO
CONTINUE INTO WEEK-2 FOR MUCH OF ALASKA ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED WESTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW. NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE, ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED HEIGHT RISES LATER
IN THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR WESTERN
HAWAII AS A WEAK AREA OF MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS NEARBY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE BIG ISLAND.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA PATTERN, OFFSET BY WEAK PRECIPITATION SIGNALS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19910810 - 20030811 - 19970721 - 20070820 - 20030806
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20030811 - 19910809 - 20020807 - 20030805 - 19930724
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 12 - 16 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A N MAINE A A
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 14 - 20 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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