103
FXUS01 KWBC 070754
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
353 AM EDT THU AUG 07 2025
VALID 12Z THU AUG 07 2025 - 12Z SAT AUG 09 2025
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY...
...THERE ARE EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER PARTS
OF SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE
GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TO THE UPPER/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN WESTWARD TO THE
GREAT BASIN BY SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL IGNITE SHOWERS AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE SPC
HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. THERE WILL BE
AN ADDED THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 65 KNOTS OR
GREATER AND HAIL TWO INCHES OR GREATER OVER THE AREA.
IN ADDITION, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
UPPER GREAT LAKES, AND OHIO VALLEY. RAINFALL OVER THESE AREAS WILL
BE MODERATE TO HEAVY.
MOREOVER, A LINGERING FRONT FROM THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE GULF
COAST WILL WIGGLE SOUTHWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD TO THE BOUNDARY S
ORIGINAL POSITION BY SATURDAY. THE FRONT AND TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN, OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND
GULF COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. FURTHER, DIURNAL HEATING WILL PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
VALLEYS, THE MID-ATLANTIC, THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, AND
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHWEST.
MEANWHILE, AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, ON FRIDAY, THE BOUNDARY WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN
ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. THERE WILL BE AN ADDED THREAT OF
HAIL TWO INCHES OR GREATER OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA, AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALSO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO
VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
SOUTHEAST, GULF COAST STATES, CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS,
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES, SOUTHWEST, AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY.
FURTHERMORE, AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL PRODUCE
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID-110S ON THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT HEAT IS FORECAST TO FOCUS OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH WIDESPREAD MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT
RISK. A WIDESPREAD MAJOR TO LOCALLY EXTREME HEAT RISK WILL ALSO
EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THERE ARE EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST.
FURTHERMORE, HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO, CENTRAL KANSAS, CENTRAL NEBRASKA, PARTS OF
NEW MEXICO, THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS, MOST OF
OKLAHOMA, AND A SMALL PART OF NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS.
STAY INFORMED AND TAKE STEPS TO PROTECT YOURSELF FROM HEAT-RELATED
ILLNESSES. FOR INFORMATION ON STAYING COOL AND SAFE, VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY/HEAT. AS TEMPERATURES RISE, LIMIT OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY, STAY HYDRATED, AND ENSURE ACCESS TO AIR-CONDITIONING AND
OTHER COOLING AREAS.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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