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FXUS06 KWBC 071901
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU AUGUST 07 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 13 - 17 2025
THE 0Z GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE ENSEMBLES DEPICT A POSITIVE NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION (+NAO) AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH ABOVE-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST EXTENDING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND
BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS AT THE HIGHER LATITUDES OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH BROAD RIDGING EXPANDING
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. RIDGING IS INITIALLY FAVORED ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC, BUT WITH SOME RETROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE FAVORING
LOWERING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WEST AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES. THE GEFS
IS MORE ROBUST WITH AMPLIFIED TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER ALASKA AND ERODING THE
RIDGE COMPARED TO THE ECENS AND CMCE WHICH ARE WEAKER WITH THIS TROUGH AND
MAINTAIN POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES TO THE SOUTH OF ALASKA ON DAY-10. TODAY’S
6-10 DAY MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE WEST AND
ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE INDICATED OVER
MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WITH INCREASING POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER
THE ALEUTIANS.
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ELEVATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (GREATER THAN 80
PERCENT) OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES TIED TO ENHANCED
RIDGING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ARE INCREASED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY GIVEN THE PROJECTED
WESTWARD EXPANSION OF RIDGING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. DECREASING POSITIVE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE WEST AS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
RIDGE RETROGRADES FURTHER INTO THE PACIFIC AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS DECREASE ALONG
THE COAST. THE UNCALIBRATED 0Z ECENS AND GEFS, AND THE ECENS REFORECAST TOOL,
SUPPORT ELEVATED CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST, AND THIS PATTERN IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY TELECONNECTION ANALYSIS WITH
THE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AS WELL AS THE
ANALOGS. THEREFORE, TODAY’S OUTLOOK TILTS MORE TOWARD ENHANCED CHANCES OF NEAR-
TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. NEAR-TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO INCREASED OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST DUE TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND BELOW-NORMAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA, SUPPORTED BY NEARLY
ALL OF THE FORECAST TOOLS. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN COAST GIVEN A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE
ECENS REFORECAST TOOL. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR HAWAII
ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE-NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.
A TRANQUIL PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED CHANCES OF NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES
(GREATER THAN 40 PERCENT) OVER THE NORTHERN TIER INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TIED TO
SHORTWAVES POTENTIALLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA RESULTING IN
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, STILL FORECAST TO BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON
MAY BECOME ACTIVE, SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS ALASKA
TIED TO A STRONG MID-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE, WITH
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING 40 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG TODAY’S ENSEMBLE MEANS, BUT OFFSET BY WEAK PRECIPITATION
SIGNALS ACROSS THE CONUS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 15 - 21 2025
DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE TOWARD A LOW AMPLITUDE, BROAD MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS DURING WEEK-2, AND WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA INTO ALASKA. THE LARGEST POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
PREDICTED TO EMERGE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD,
WITH THE HEIGHT MAXIMUM BECOMING SITUATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. THE WEEK-2
500-HPA MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS +60 METER HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER PORTIONS OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST, WITH +30 METER ANOMALIES EXPANDING WESTWARD OVER
PARTS OF THE ROCKIES. CLOSER TO NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE
INDICATED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA,
WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND AND ALEUTIANS.
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED ACROSS
MOST OF THE CONUS DURING WEEK-2 UNDERNEATH DOMINANT LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING AND
SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS AND ECENS REFORECAST TOOLS. AS IN THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK,
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE THE UNCALIBRATED 0Z GEFS
AND ECENS, AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ECENS REFORECAST TOOL, SUPPORT INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES TIED TO INCREASING TROUGHING NEAR
THE WEST COAST AND DOWNSTREAM OF RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC.
THEREFORE, NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. NEAR- TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE ALSO INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST DUE TO BELOW-NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FOR MOST OF
ALASKA DUE TO A CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN AND SUPPORTED BY MOST
FORECAST TOOLS. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED
ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION FORECAST TOOL.
THERE ARE LIMITED SYNOPTIC FEATURES DRIVING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CONUS
DURING WEEK-2 MAKING FOR A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WEAK PROBABILITIES
FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS TIED
TO INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING AND SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED PRECIPITATION MOVING OVERTOP THE RIDGE. WEAK
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING
TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH ANY
U.S. IMPACTS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS LEAD. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST (EXCLUDING NORTHERN MAINE WHERE
ABOVE-NORMAL IS WEAKLY FAVORED) AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS DUE TO WEAK
SIGNALS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD INCREASED ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, SUPPORTED
BY MOST FORECAST TOOLS AND ENHANCED MONSOON ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ODDS ARE ENHANCED OVER MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEST UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING RIDGE. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS
SLIGHTLY FAVORED TO CONTINUE INTO WEEK-2 FOR MUCH OF ALASKA ASSOCIATED WITH
ENHANCED WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE
LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE, ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED HEIGHT
RISES LATER IN THE PERIOD. NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA PATTERN, OFFSET BY WEAK PRECIPITATION SIGNALS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20030811 - 19910810 - 19930724 - 20070820 - 20020806
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20030811 - 19910809 - 20020807 - 19930723 - 20030806
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 13 - 17 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON N B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 15 - 21 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON A B NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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