742
FXUS01 KWBC 071928
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
327 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
VALID 00Z FRI AUG 8 2025 - 00Z SUN AUG 10 2025
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
...HEAT BUILDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY...
A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE
U.S./CANADA BORDER BY LATE FRIDAY. DEEP LAYER ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH WILL INDUCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
RESULT IN A STRONG SURFACE LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, ON THE ORDER
OF 1000 MB BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL HAVE ENOUGH
KINEMATICS AND INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER FROM EASTERN
MONTANA TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY HAS AN ENHANCED RISK
(LEVEL 3/5) ACROSS PORTIONS OF THAT REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT,
AND A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) ON FRIDAY A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALSO
LIKELY NEAR THE WARM FRONT WHERE SOME CONVECTIVE TRAINING WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER RAINFALL RATES, AND THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS ROCKIES WILL ALSO RESULT IN A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
ON FRIDAY, AND THIS WILL INCREASE SURFACE WINDS. THESE WINDS IN
COMBINATION WITH A DRY AIRMASS WILL INCREASE WILDFIRE CONCERNS TO
CRITICAL LEVELS PER THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FROM SOUTHEASTERN
NEVADA TO WESTERN COLORADO. FOR THE SOUTHEAST U.S., A LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED OFF THE COAST WILL TEND TO KEEP ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA TO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF NORTH CAROLINA. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER IS ALSO MONITORING THE OFFSHORE WATERS HERE FOR
POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT
ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD MOVE OUT TO SEA.
THE ONGOING INTENSE HEAT WAVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
FINALLY START TO ABATE GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN SOME. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 110S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ARIZONA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA DESERTS WILL DROP
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BY SATURDAY, BUT STILL HOT. HOWEVER, THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST GOING INTO
FRIDAY, AND THEN A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION INCREASES IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW. HEATRISK IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MAJOR CATEGORY FROM
NORTHERN TEXAS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, AND HEAT ADVISORIES ARE
ALREADY IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UP TO PORTIONS OF SOUTH
DAKOTA, WITH HIGHS OF 95-105 DEGREES LIKELY FOR MANY OF THESE
AREAS ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GRADUAL RETURN TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN U.S. GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
BEYOND.
HAMRICK
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