647
FXUS01 KWBC 080813
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT FRI AUG 08 2025
VALID 12Z FRI AUG 08 2025 - 12Z SUN AUG 10 2025
...ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY, REACHING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THE
WEEKEND...
...THE THREAT OF EXECESSIVE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHERN
MINNESOTA LATER THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT, SHIFTING FARTHER SOUTH
INTO IOWA, SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY THE
WEEKEND...
...TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...
A ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL TRIGGER A RATHER
DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR AUGUST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PACK ENOUGH DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SEVERE
WEATHER FROM ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING TO NORTHERN
NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CURRENTLY HAS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY MAINTAINING A SLIGHT
RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST BEGINNING THIS EVENING
INTO THE WEEKEND. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALSO LIKELY TO
REACH NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATER THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT, SHIFTING
FARTHER SOUTH INTO IOWA, SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
BY THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WAVE THAT
REINFORCES THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING MAIN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY THE WEEKEND.
THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS ROCKIES WILL ALSO RESULT IN A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
TODAY, AND THIS WILL INCREASE SURFACE WINDS. THESE WINDS IN
COMBINATION WITH A DRY AIRMASS WILL INCREASE WILDFIRE CONCERNS TO
CRITICAL LEVELS PER THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FROM THE GREAT
BASIN TO THE FOUR CORNERS. FOR THE SOUTHEAST U.S., A LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OR JUST OFF THE COAST WILL TEND TO KEEP
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF NORTH CAROLINA. THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ALSO MONITORING THE OFFSHORE WATERS
HERE FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
BUT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD MOVE OUT TO SEA.
THE ONGOING INTENSE HEAT WAVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
FINALLY START TO ABATE GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN SOME. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 110S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ARIZONA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA DESERTS WILL DROP
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BY SATURDAY, BUT STILL HOT. HOWEVER, THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
MIDWEST FOR TODAY WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 100S ARE
IN THE FORECAST. THE HEAT WILL MOVE A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BUT MUCH COOLER AIR FROM
CANADA WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY.
HEATRISK IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MAJOR CATEGORY FROM NORTHERN
TEXAS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, AND HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST FOR TODAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GRADUAL RETURN TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN U.S. GOING INTO THE WEEKEND
AND BEYOND AFTER THE PRESENT COOL SPELL.
KONG/HAMRICK
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