106
FXUS01 KWBC 090808
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT SAT AUG 09 2025
VALID 12Z SAT AUG 09 2025 - 12Z MON AUG 11 2025
...NUMEROUS NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO RAISE FLASH
FLOODING THREAT TO MODERATE LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...
AN UNUSUALLY ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FOR AUGUST IS PUSHING A
VIGOROUS COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING VERY HEAVY
RAIN. AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA, THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY STALL ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO REPEATEDLY DEVELOP AND IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT-TIME
HOURS. HOURLY RAIN AMOUNTS TO 2.5" ALONG WITH MULTI-DAY RAIN
TOTALS LOCALLY TO 9" CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM
NORTHERN MISSOURI ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA AND INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. GIVEN ANTECEDENT HEAVY RAINFALL DURING RECENT WEEKS IN
THESE AREAS, NUMEROUS FLASH FLOODS, SOME WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS,
ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA.
MEANWHILE, HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED STALLING FRONT, IN CONTRAST WITH MUCH COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. SOME CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE COOL
AIR.
THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO DRY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS, PROMPTING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. FOR THE SOUTHEAST U.S., A
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OR JUST OFF THE COAST INTERACTING
WITH CYCLONIC DISTURBANCES WITHIN A TROPICAL WAVE WILL KEEP ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO FUEL THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE GREATEST CHANCE
FOR THESE STORMS TO DEVELOP AND LINGER WILL BE FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA WESTWARD ALONG AND NEAR THE NORTHEAST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST, BRINGING A LIMITED AND LOCALIZED RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.
HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, BUT WITH LESSER
INTENSITY THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY, COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS ARIZONA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA DESERTS SHOULD
STILL APPROACH, IF NOT SLIGHTLY EXCEED, 110F. ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND, A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD
REMAIN SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN AVERAGE DUE TO THE EXPECTED RAINFALL
AND CLOUDINESS.
KONG/ROTH
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