303
FXUS01 KWBC 092000
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
359 PM EDT SAT AUG 09 2025
VALID 00Z SUN AUG 10 2025 - 00Z TUE AUG 12 2025
...REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST THROUGH
MONDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS, AND ISOLATED TORNADOES FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...
...RISK OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSISTS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH SUNDAY...
A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM PARKED ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MIDWEST WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. PLENTY OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG A WAVY FRONT
WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THAT CAN QUICKLY TURN SEVERE, PARTICULARLY
FROM PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO TONIGHT. THE MOST SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, WITH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO NOT RULED OUT EITHER. AS CLUSTERS OF
STORMS MERGE AND TRACK OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS, THE THREAT WILL
SHIFT TO PROLONGED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH CAN LEAD TO NUMEROUS
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SLOW
AND CHAOTIC MOVEMENT OF THESE STORM CLUSTERS COMBINED WITH INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES OVER SATURATED GROUNDS WILL MEAN THAT ANY FLASH
FLOODING WILL HAVE THE HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A
MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH SUNDAY. REMEMBER,
HAVE A PLAN BEFORE VENTURING OUT AND BE AWARE OF ALTERNATE ROUTES
IN CASE YOU ENCOUNTER FLOODED ROADWAYS. AS ALWAYS, TURN AROUND,
DON'T DROWN!
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH HOT AND VERY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE RISK OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND SOLAR INSOLATION WILL RESULT IN
THE EFFICIENT MIXING OF GUSTY WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GUSTY WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DRY
FUELS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WILL
LEAD TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR NEW FIRE STARTS OR EXISTING FIRES TO SPREAD RAPIDLY.
MEANWHILE, HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED STALLING FRONT, IN CONTRAST WITH MUCH COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAT CONTINUES
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, BUT IT WON'T BE QUITE AS HOT AS IT
HAS BEEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, NEW
ENGLAND, AND THE NORTHEAST, A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S HEADING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN
AVERAGE DUE TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FEATURING A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDS AND DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MILLER
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