998
FXUS01 KWBC 100810
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
VALID 12Z SUN AUG 10 2025 - 12Z TUE AUG 12 2025
...REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO PRODUCE INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS, AND ISOLATED TORNADOES FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE
MIDWEST THROUGH TONIGHT...
...ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE WEATHER PERSISTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FOUR
CORNERS...
A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PERIODIC EJECTIONS OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL PROVIDE THE DYNAMICS
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THAT
CAN QUICKLY TURN SEVERE, PARTICULARLY FROM PARTS OF EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THE MOST SEVERE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO NOT RULED
OUT EITHER. AS CLUSTERS OF STORMS MERGE AND TRACK OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS, THE CUMULATIVE EFFECTS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL LEAD TO
NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE SLOW AND CHAOTIC MOVEMENT OF THESE STORM CLUSTERS COMBINED
WITH INTENSE RAINFALL RATES OVER SATURATED GROUNDS WILL MEAN THAT
ANY FLASH FLOODING WILL HAVE THE HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THIS GENERAL AREA, WITH A MODERATE
RISK EMBEDDED ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO MISSOURI THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. REMEMBER, HAVE A PLAN BEFORE VENTURING OUT AND BE AWARE
OF ALTERNATE ROUTES IN CASE YOU ENCOUNTER FLOODED ROADWAYS. AS
ALWAYS, TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN!
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENTIAL OF FLOOD-PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST WHERE
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC CONVERGES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO SKIRT THE COASTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, SOME MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP A THREAT OF ISOLATED FLOODING DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BE MOST ACTIVE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SLOW-MOVING FRONT, IN CONTRAST WITH MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES, NEW ENGLAND, AND THE NORTHEAST, HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE 80S TO AS HIGH AS THE MID-90S ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT COOLER
THAN AVERAGE DUE TO THE PREVALENCE OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
A RISK OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
AND SOLAR INSOLATION WILL RESULT IN THE EFFICIENT MIXING OF GUSTY
WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GUSTY
WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DRY FUELS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WILL LEAD TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW FIRE STARTS OR EXISTING FIRES
TO SPREAD RAPIDLY.
KONG/MILLER
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