524
FXUS01 KWBC 111923
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
320 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
VALID 00Z TUE AUG 12 2025 - 00Z THU AUG 14 2025
...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND ALSO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...
...HEAT BUILDS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND FOR THE OHIO
VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS DEPICTED A SLIGHT RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE LOCALLY
A FEW INCHES OF RAIN WILL POSSIBLE ALONG WITH CONCERNS FOR FLASH
FLOODING FOR TONIGHT.
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL SHIFT OFF TO
THE EAST AND WEAKEN, BUT THERE WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF A DEEPER
TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL DRIVE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THESE AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS, BUT
DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND DRIVE TEMPERATURES
DOWN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM BACK UP RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY LATER IN THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE, A WIDESPREAD AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST REGION, THE INTERIOR OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK. AN
ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COUPLED WITH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE POOLED ACROSS THE REGION WILL FAVOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
AREAS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND
RATHER SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL FAVOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
TOTALS AND CONCERNS FOR SOME FLASH FLOODING. IN FACT, THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
(LEVEL 2/4) ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
WHILE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IMPACT
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEHIND
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTS, IT WILL BE QUITE HOT AND HUMID OUT
AHEAD OF THESE BOUNDARIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
ESPECIALLY THE INTERIOR OF THE NORTHEAST, WITH TEMPERATURES
LOCALLY REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER ACROSS THE SOUTH, BUT IT WILL BE VERY MUGGY
HERE GIVEN THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE. ACROSS THE WEST, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES HERE QUITE HOT WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, GREAT BASIN
AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOME OF THE INTERIOR DESERTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH WELL INTO THE 110 TO 120
DEGREE RANGE. WIDESPREAD HEAT ADVISORIES AND EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT AS A RESULT. A GRADUAL BREAK IN THE HEAT IS
EXPECTED AT LEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS WEEK AS A COLD
FRONT ARRIVES AND HELPS TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
ORRISON
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