486
FXUS01 KWBC 120804
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2025
VALID 12Z TUE AUG 12 2025 - 12Z THU AUG 14 2025
...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
INTO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
...THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LESS INTENSE AND MORE SCATTERED TODAY BEFORE THEY SLIDE
EAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...
...A COUPLE OF DAYS OF HEAT ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS HEAT
BUILDS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BUT UPPER-LEVEL
IMPULSES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH CAN HELP TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY.
THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS INTENSE AND MORE
SCATTERED TODAY COMPARED WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS. BY WEDNESDAY,
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO FURTHER WASH OUT BUT THE PRESENCE OF
UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES COULD ONCE AGAIN TOUCH OFF A FEW MORE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. MEANWHILE, THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FARTHER EAST BY LATER
TODAY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH, AND ESPECIALLY CLOSER TOWARD THE GULF
COAST WHERE TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER DISSIPATING
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST, THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND THEN UP INTO
THE INTERIOR MID-ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO TOUCH OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO REACH INTO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.
WHILE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL AT LEAST TEMPORARILY SPREAD INTO
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEHIND
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, IT WILL BE QUITE HOT AND HUMID OUT
AHEAD OF THESE BOUNDARIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
ESPECIALLY THE INTERIOR OF THE NORTHEAST, WITH TEMPERATURES
LOCALLY REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER ACROSS THE SOUTH, BUT IT WILL BE VERY MUGGY
HERE GIVEN THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT ALREADY IN PLACE.
ACROSS THE WEST, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES HERE QUITE HOT WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, GREAT BASIN
AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOME OF THE INTERIOR DESERTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH WELL INTO THE 110 TO 120
DEGREE RANGE. WIDESPREAD HEAT ADVISORIES AND EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT AS A RESULT. A GRADUAL BREAK IN THE HEAT IS
EXPECTED AT LEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS WEEK AS A COLD
FRONT ARRIVES AND HELPS TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
BY LATER ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP BRING THE HEAT IN THE WESTERN U.S.
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION, A ROUND OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS AND INTERACTS WITH A PAIR OF
WARM FRONTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
KONG/ORRISON
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