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FXUS06 KWBC 121902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE AUGUST 12 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 18 - 22 2025
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA
CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GEFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS. THE RESULTANT MANUAL
BLEND FEATURES AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND MODERATE
TROUGHING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC, BROAD RIDGING OVER MOST OF THE
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AND TROUGHING OVER QUEBEC, EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHEAST
AND ADJACENT NORTH ATLANTIC. TODAY’S MODEL SOLUTIONS’ DEPICTION OF THIS TROUGH
ARE MORE AMPLIFIED, ADDING CONFIDENCE TO THE COOLING TREND SEEN IN MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS.
EXPANSIVE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA BROADLY
FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS, WITH PROBABILITIES OF
AT LEAST 40% ALMOST UNIVERSAL FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST. HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
ALONG THE GULF COAST, UP THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (>50%), AND ESPECIALLY
FOR THE GREAT BASIN, ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS, WITH PEAK PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING
80% NEAR YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK. CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEAKEN
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND FOR THE NORTHEAST, WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST
LIKELY FOR THE SEATTLE AREA, THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BECOME MOST LIKELY FOR
NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE AS THE QUEBEC
TROUGH BECOMES DEEPER. AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA FAVORS
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WHILE
AMPLIFIED TROUGHING UPSTREAM OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTH SLOPE. CONTINUED POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII FAVOR PERSISTENT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE STATE.
TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC FAVORS NEAR OR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE U.S.-CANADA BORDER FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MONSOON ACTIVITY ALSO TILTS THE ODDS TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ROCKIES. INCREASED MOISTURE OFF THE GULF
OF AMERICA SPREADING NORTH IS ALSO INDICATED BY MODEL GUIDANCE, TILTING
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION. PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST U.S. ALSO ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION, WHICH MAY COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL STORM (TS) ERIN
WHICH FORMED JUST WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS YESTERDAY. TROUGHING OVER
QUEBEC HAS THE POTENTIAL TO INTERACT WITH THE WIND FIELD OF ERIN, RESULTING IN
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND PUSHING THE ODDS TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES POOR
PENETRATION OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT BASIN, RESULTING IN
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE REGION. IN ALASKA, TROUGHING OVER THE
CHUKCHI SEA FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE ALASKAN MAINLAND,
HOWEVER RIDGING OVER THE BERING SEA PREVENTS SOUTHWARD SPREAD OF THIS ENHANCED
MOISTURE, TILTING THE SOUTHERN COAST TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5. VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL TOOLS IS OFFSET BY UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE TROPICS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 20 - 26 2025
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD PREDICT A VERY SIMILAR PATTERN
TO THE 6-10DAY PERIOD. STRONG RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN BERING
SEA AND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. TROUGHING FEATURES OVER BOTH THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND CHUKCHI SEA ARE FAVORED TO WEAKEN BUT REMAIN, WHILE MODEL ENSEMBLES
DEPICT THE TROUGH OVER QUEBEC WEAKENING SLIGHTLY BUT BROADENING, RESULTING IN A
NOTICEABLE SHIFT IN TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS.
WITH THIS RETROGRADING TROUGH ALONG WITH POTENTIAL LARGE-SCALE INFLUENCE FROM
TS ERIN, MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS IS FAVORED TO SHIFT FROM ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD TO NEAR-NORMAL FOR WEEK-2, WITH A
SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SPREADING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48 AND ALONG THE GULF COAST, WITH
PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 60% CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT
SOUTHWEST. FOR ALASKA THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN RESULTS IN A MOSTLY
PERSISTENCE FORECAST, ALTHOUGH WEAKENING TROUGHING OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA ALLOWS
FOR A SLIGHT SHIFT NORTHWARD FOR ENHANCED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE
PROBABILITIES. SIMILARLY, THE HAWAII FORECAST IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD WITH NO CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE FORCING IN THE REGION.
MONSOON MOISTURE IS FAVORED TO CONTINUE SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS,
SLIGHTLY TILTING THE ODDS TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST UP INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MODELS DEPICT PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVING
OVER THE TOP OF THE CONUS RIDGE AND ALONG THE U.S.-CANADA BORDER, SLIGHTLY
FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS
WELL. TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION
OUTLOOK AS THE ATLANTIC TC SEASON PICKS UP, RESULTING IN A MODEST TILT TOWARDS
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SIMILAR TO
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, LARGE-SCALE INTERACTIONS WITH ERIN AND THE QUEBEC TROUGH
WOULD TEND TO LOWER THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS,
RESULTING IN NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION INDICATED FROM NEW ENGLAND
SOUTH TO CHESAPEAKE BAY AND WESTWARD AS FAR AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES THE TROPICS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM ANY
DEVELOPING SYSTEMS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5. GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL
TOOLS IS OFFSET BY THE LIKELIHOOD OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN THE ATLANTIC
DURING WEEK-2.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19880801 - 20090817 - 20020813 - 20020727 - 19960806
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19880801 - 20020812 - 20090816 - 19960805 - 19620825
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 18 - 22 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 20 - 26 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA N N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI N N
ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA N B OHIO B N KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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