598
FXUS01 KWBC 121950
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
349 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2025
VALID 00Z WED AUG 13 2025 - 00Z FRI AUG 15 2025
...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING MUCH OF THE GULF
COAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT WILL OVERSPREAD THE OHIO
VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
...SOME CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
...HEAT ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST
AND BACK INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST FOR LATER THIS WEEK AS THE
NORTHWEST COOLS DOWN...
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS CROSSING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL GRADUALLY BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO
THESE AREAS GOING THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK, BUT WILL
ALSO BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE OHIO
VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THERE IS ALREADY A POOL OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
POOLED WELL AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS INVOLVING THE GULF COAST REGION,
THE SOUTHEAST AND ALSO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WHICH IS
CURRENTLY PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AREAS OF HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THESE AREAS, ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR SOME
FLASH FLOODING. IN FACT, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS
DEPICTED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WHERE THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
HELP TO FOCUS LOCALLY A FEW INCHES OF RAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE, A NEW STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THROUGH WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARM FRONT TO RETURN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL PROMOTE A RENEWED THREAT OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE THERE
WILL BE A CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS DEPICTED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A CONCERN FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED
AREAS OF LARGE HAIL. AS THIS WARM FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD AND AN
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA, THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON THURSDAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY TREND BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST U.S. FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A BREAK FROM THE HEATWAVE THAT
PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING AS WELL.
HOWEVER, THE SAME HOT WEATHER THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE WEST WILL
SHIFT EAST OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST LATE THIS
WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING
WELL INTO THE 90S TO LOCALLY OVER 100 DEGREES. OTHER PORTIONS OF
THE COUNTRY THAT HAVE BEEN HOT LATELY INCLUDE THE NORTHEAST U.S.,
AND THIS AREA SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY COOL DOWN AS A
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES JUST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.
ORRISON
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