343
FXUS01 KWBC 130800
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
359 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2025
VALID 12Z WED AUG 13 2025 - 12Z FRI AUG 15 2025
...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY
TO EARLY FRIDAY...
...HEAT IS BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS HEATRISK IS
FORECAST TO LOCALLY REACH EXTREME LEVEL IN PORTION OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA...
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS IS FORECAST
TO ADVANCE FROM THE MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE
EASTERN U.S. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTS, A LARGE AREA OF WARM AND
MOIST AIR ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S AND INTO DEEP
SOUTH WILL BE AN INGREDIENT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST ACTIVE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN
THESE AREAS. THE MOST FAVORABLE REGION FOR HEAVY RAIN TO OCCUR
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A
PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST TOWARD THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. IN FACT, THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THIS AREA.
MEANWHILE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE CROSS
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE DYNAMICS
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RAISE THE THREAT OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE THERE THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A CONCERN FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED
AREAS OF LARGE HAIL. AS THE WARM FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD AND THEN
COLLIDES WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES,
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL THEN HEAD FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY TREND BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST U.S. FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A BREAK FROM THE HEATWAVE THAT
PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING AS WELL.
HOWEVER, THE SAME HOT WEATHER THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE WEST WILL
SHIFT EAST OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST LATE THIS
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S TO LOCALLY OVER 100 DEGREES INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE IT HAS BEEN HOT LATELY,
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY COOL DOWN AS A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA, A SLIGHT INCREASE OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS
ENOUGH TO RAISE HEATRISK TO EXTREME LEVELS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE SUNSHINE STATE.
KONG/ORRISON
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page