926
FXUS01 KWBC 132002
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
401 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2025
VALID 00Z THU AUG 14 2025 - 00Z SAT AUG 16 2025
...SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND
DEEP SOUTH TODAY...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING AND THE UPPER MIDWEST TOMORROW...
...HEAT TO SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS; HEATRISK IS
FORECAST TO LOCALLY REACH MAJOR AND LOCALLY EXTREME LEVEL IN
PORTION OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS FORECAST TO ADVANCE FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN U.S. TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. AHEAD OF THESE
FRONTS, A LARGE AREA OF WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. AND DEEP SOUTH WILL FAVOR PERIODS OF VERY INTENSE
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES WITHIN THE STRONGER CELLS THIS AFTERNOON. AS
SUCH, PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC (INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE I-95 CORRIDOR) AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAVE BEEN UPGRADED
TO A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY, IN
ADDITION SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND GULF COAST WHICH WERE
HIGHLIGHTED OVERNIGHT. BY TOMORROW, THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT SHOULD USHER IN A MORE STABLE AIRMASS, IN TURN
DECREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER, ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST.
MEANWHILE, A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES WILL DRIVE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING,
WHERE A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN
EFFECT, PRIMARILY FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
AS THE WARM FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD AND THEN COLLIDES WITH A COLD
FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES, THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL THEN HEAD FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY TREND BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST U.S. FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A BREAK FROM THE HOT WEATHER THAT
PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING AS WELL.
HOWEVER, THE SAME HOT WEATHER THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE WEST WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING
WELL INTO THE 90S TO THE HIGH PLAINS. ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA, A
SLIGHT INCREASE OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS ENOUGH TO RAISE HEATRISK
INTO MAJOR AND LOCALLY EXTREME LEVELS TOMORROW AND FRIDAY AS THE
BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE SUNSHINE STATE.
ASHERMAN/KONG
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