850
FXUS01 KWBC 150710
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
309 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
VALID 12Z FRI AUG 15 2025 - 12Z SUN AUG 17 2025
...NHC MONITORING A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
...HAZARDOUS HEAT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MIDWEST THIS
WEEKEND...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) IS MONITORING A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF, WHICH MAY BRING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY INTO SATURDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD MOVE INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR
SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. FOR MORE INFORMATION, SEE
THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM NHC.
TO THE NORTH, A SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST, TRIGGERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHICH WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS,
HAIL, A BRIEF TORNADO, AND/OR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING.
STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT,
AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STORMS, SOME SEVERE, ARE FORECAST TO
IMPACT THE UPPER MIDWEST AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND MAY LEAD
TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY THE FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION.
ELSEWHERE, DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
ACROSS THE REGION, AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND,
PROGRESSING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, GREAT BASIN, AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWEST WILL ALSO
SUPPORT PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN THE SOUTH AND WEST, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, THE WEST COAST SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN AVERAGE
WHILE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. EXPERIENCE ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE
FORECAST TO SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST THIS
WEEKEND, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S AND LOW
100S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW-TO-MID 100S. THIS LEVEL OF
HEAT IS EXPECTED TO CREATE MAJOR TO LOCALLY EXTREME HEATRISK IN
THESE REGIONS, WHICH COULD BE HAZARDOUS TO ANYONE WITHOUT ADEQUATE
COOLING AND/OR HYDRATION.
DOLAN
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