771
FXUS01 KWBC 151907
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
305 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
VALID 00Z SAT AUG 16 2025 - 00Z MON AUG 18 2025
...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTH TEXAS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE REGION...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
...HAZARDOUS HEAT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THIS WEEKEND...
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR SOUTH TEXAS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TODAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS
DISTURBANCE SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARDS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TONIGHT BRINGING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODING. PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS, INCLUDING BROWNSVILLE, IS UNDER
A SLIGHT RISK (2/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST, A SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO TREK SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. WITH THE WARM, MOIST AIR AND INSTABILITY ALOFT, EXPECT
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A SLIGHT
RISK (2/5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HAIL, STRONG GUSTY WINDS,
AND HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING. AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY, EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THIS AREA, BRINGING CHANCES FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING.
WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, MOISTURE FROM AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OVER WASHINGTON, AND
MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FORTUNATELY, RAINFALL WILL BE
BENEFICIAL DUE TO RECENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
THEREFORE, RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE MARGINAL.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S THIS
WEEKEND, PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS ARE UNDER A MAJOR
TO EXTREME HEATRISK, WHICH WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR THOSE WITHOUT
EFFECTIVE COOLING/HYDRATION AND THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT.
OTHERWISE, A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER WESTERN U.S.,
ALLOWING FOR COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND OVER CALIFORNIA, THE GREAT BASIN, AND PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.
OUDIT
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