872
FXUS01 KWBC 160701
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
VALID 12Z SAT AUG 16 2025 - 12Z MON AUG 18 2025
...ROUNDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND SUNDAY...
...HAZARDOUS HEAT IN THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PROGRESS
FASTER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST WHILE REMAINING NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. THE SLOW NATURE OF THE FRONT AND
REPEATING ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL CREATE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST, AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. BY MONDAY,
THE FRONT SHOULD GAIN SOME SOUTHEASTWARD MOMENTUM, AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL SHIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE THE
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. DRIES OUT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND TRAILING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FLORIDA AND
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
DUE TO EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER, THE WEST COAST AND
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL LIKELY SEE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO
NUDGE INTO THE NORTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON
MONDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S., WITH HAZARDOUS HEAT POSSIBLE IN THE
MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 90S TO NEAR
100 DEGREES WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES 105-110 DEGREES. THIS LEVEL OF
HEAT WILL CREATE MAJOR TO EXTREME HEATRISK ACROSS THE REGION,
WHICH COULD BE DANGEROUS TO ANYONE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AND/OR
HYDRATION.
DOLAN
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