334
FXUS01 KWBC 161929
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
328 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
VALID 00Z SUN AUG 17 2025 - 00Z TUE AUG 19 2025
...ROUNDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH MONDAY...
...TURNING COOLER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT COULD SPARK A FEW SEVERE STORMS ON
SUNDAY...
...HAZARDOUS HEAT BUILDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND MID/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, TO THE
UPPER MIDWEST, TO THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY THE MID-ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WAVY FRONT WILL BE THE DIVIDER BETWEEN COOL
AND DRY AIR TO THE NORTH, AND VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR TO THE
SOUTH, PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE ROCKIES. SEVERAL WAVES DEVELOPING
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP ITS FORWARD MOTION RELATIVELY SLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST, SETTING THE STAGE
FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SLOW MOTION OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH STORMS
TRACKING OVER THE SAME AREAS MULTIPLE TIMES WILL LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
THROUGH SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS, THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN, NORTHERN IOWA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE SEVERE AND FLOODING THREATS WANE SOMEWHAT
ON MONDAY, BUT WON'T DIMINISH COMPLETELY UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FINALLY DRIES THINGS OUT. UNTIL
THEN, THOSE WHO ARE UNDER THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ARE ADVISED TO PLAN AHEAD BEFORE VENTURING OUT, AND BE
AWARE OF ALTERNATE ROUTES IN CASE YOU ENCOUNTER FLOODED ROADWAYS.
REMEMBER, TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN!
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST, AND MID-ATLANTIC,
SWEEPING INTO A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP, WITH A FEW POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG TO
SEVERE. ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, WITH HAIL ALSO NOT RULED OUT. OTHER
THAN THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT, THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE COOLER
AND DRIER AIR THAT FILTERS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT, PROVIDING A MUCH MORE PLEASANT START TO THE NEW WORK WEEK
AFTER A STEAMY WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. MONSOONAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL SUPPORT DAILY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WHILE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS, GEORGIA AND FLORIDA. WHILE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS, ANY
SLOWER MOVING OR HEAVIER SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
CAUSING ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY OVER
MORE SENSITIVE AREAS LIKE BURN SCARS, STEEP TERRAIN, OR AREAS OF
POOR DRAINAGE.
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OSCILLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE U.S., A PERIOD OF SCORCHING HEAT IS LIKELY TO BUILD
FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105-110
DEGREES. THIS LEVEL OF HEAT WILL CREATE MAJOR TO EXTREME HEATRISK
ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH COULD BE DANGEROUS TO ANYONE WITHOUT
ADEQUATE COOLING AND/OR HYDRATION.
MILLER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page