134
FXUS01 KWBC 181923
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
323 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2025
VALID 00Z TUE AUG 19 2025 - 00Z THU AUG 21 2025
...ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST,
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS, AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WITH CHANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING...
...LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE
BEACHES OF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEK AS HURRICANE ERIN PASSES BY TO
THE EAST...
...HAZARDOUS HEAT BUILDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS, MIDWEST, AND
MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK AND THE
SOUTHWEST BY MID-WEEK...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST AND A
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST, EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY FOR
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS, SOUTHEAST MID-ATLANTIC, AND THE MIDWEST.
WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS, INSTABILITY, AND RAIN
RATES NEAR 2" PER HOUR, PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND PLAINS WILL BE
UNDER BOTH A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) AND A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, HAIL, AND STRONG
WINDS, WHEREAS STORMS DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST MID-ATLANTIC
WILL ONLY BE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. WITH AN
INCREASE IN SOIL SATURATION FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE
SHORT-FUSED DOWNPOURS, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED/LOCAL
FLASH FLOODING FOR THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, APPALACHIANS, AND
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FOR THIS EVENING INTO THE NIGHT.
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED FOR MANY OF
THE BEACHES ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS WEEK AS HURRICANE ERIN
BEGINS TO TRACK NORTHWARD AND PASS BY TO THE EAST. IN ADDITION,
INTERESTS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS OF THE CAROLINAS SHOULD KEEP
MONITORING ERIN'S FORECAST TRACK AS THERE IS A RISK OF STRONG
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER RAIN BANDS MID-WEEK, AS WELL AS A
THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROMOTE HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS, MIDWEST, AND MID/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S, ALONG WITH
VERY LITTLE OVERNIGHT RELIEF AS MINIMUMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
WITHIN THE 70S, MUCH OF THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY ARE UNDER A MAJOR TO EXTREME HEATRISK. IN
ADDITION, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS BY MID-WEEK,
WHICH WILL HIGHLIGHT PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MAJOR HEATRISK.
OTHERWISE, THE COLD FRONT THAT SITS OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BRING
SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE
COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALSO CONTINUE FOR THE WEST COAST WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND
70S.
OUDIT/PUTNAM
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