432
FXUS01 KWBC 192046
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
445 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
VALID 00Z WED AUG 20 2025 - 00Z FRI AUG 22 2025
...THE EXPANDING CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE ERIN IS EXPECTED TO
BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS FOR THE OUTER BANKS LATE WEDNESDAY
TO THURSDAY...
...LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL BE CHURNING UP AND
DOWN THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
...CLUSTERS OF SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING A THREAT OF
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING FOR THE SOUTHWEST, AND FROM ACROSS SOUTH
TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH A
LOCALLY HIGHER THREAT OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THIS
EVENING...
...HAZARDOUS HEAT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH IN EXPECTED TO EASE AS HEAT
BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...
HURRICANE ERIN, CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD IN THE ATLANTIC
TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS, IS FORECAST TO PASS NOT TOO FAR OFF TO
THE EAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY. THE CIRCULATION OF ERIN
IS FORECAST TO EXPAND CONSIDERABLY AS THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE
TRACKS NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S., WITH THE EYE EXPECTED TO
PASS NOT TOO FAR TO THE EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS THURSDAY MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM WINDS AND SQUALLY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER
RAINBANDS OF ERIN ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE OUTER BANKS, TOGETHER
WITH A STORM SURGE OF UP TO 2-4 FEET ON THURSDAY. GIVEN THE
EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD, ANY FURTHER WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF
ERIN WILL BRING HIGHER WINDS AND STRONGER RAINBANDS FURTHER INTO
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND FARTHER UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION, LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CHURN UP AND DOWN THE EAST COAST THIS WEEK.
BEACH-GOERS SHOULD FOLLOW ADVICE FROM LIFEGUARDS, LOCAL
AUTHORITIES, AND BEACH WARNING FLAGS, AND IF IN DOUBT DO NOT
VENTURE OUT. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK AND KEY MESSAGES PERTAINING TO HURRICANE
ERIN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A
DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SLOWLY DIPS ACROSS THE COASTAL
MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS SOUTHWEST THROUGH GEORGIA AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT. A CLUSTER
OF SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
BRING LOCALLY INTENSE DOWNPOURS AND A GREATER RISK OF SCATTERED
FLASH FLOODING WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL
2/4) IS FORECAST INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS INTO THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY, AND
TOWARD THE GULF COAST ACROSS THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY.
ACROSS THE WEST, MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST
WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BRIEF BUT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE MORE SENSITIVE TERRAIN OF THE LOCAL
MOUNTAIN RANGES AND ANY BURN SCARS. ELSEWHERE, SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ACROSS
FLORIDA AND ALONG THE GULF COAST. SOME ISOLATED STORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY A PASSING FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
ON THURSDAY.
AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF VERY HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID-SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME
RELIEF FOR THESE AREAS ON WEDNESDAY, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN HOT. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, AND SOUTHWEST
WILL ALSO BRING ABOVE AVERAGE, VERY HOT TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE 90S AND LOW 100S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH LOW 110S
FOR THE DESERT REGIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOCALLY WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, AND EXTREME HEAT
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE UNDER MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT
RISK (LEVELS 2/3 OF 4), INDICATING A LEVEL OF HEAT THAT CAN AFFECT
ANYONE WITHOUT ACCESS TO ADEQUATE AIR CONDITIONING OR HYDRATION,
ESPECIALLY THOSE MORE SENSITIVE TO HEAT. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT
HAS BROUGHT UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
WEEK, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO CONTINUE ALONG THE WEST COAST TUESDAY AS HIGHS REMAIN IN
THE 60S AND 70S ALONG THE COAST AND 80S INLAND. THE BUILDING
UPPER-RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BRING A WARMING TREND BY WEDNESDAY.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS FORECAST TO EMERGE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GENERALLY SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MIDWEST, WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S AND 80S, AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND PLAINS WITH HIGHS INTO
THE 90S.
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