071
FXUS01 KWBC 210656
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
255 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2025
VALID 12Z THU AUG 21 2025 - 12Z SAT AUG 23 2025
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER
BANKS AND COASTAL VIRGINIA THURSDAY; TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...
...LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL BE CHURNING UP AND
DOWN THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG A STALLING COLD FRONT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST, GULF COAST, AND TEXAS, WITH A SLIGHT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA FRIDAY...
...DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...
HURRICANE ERIN, WITH ITS EXPANDING CIRCULATION, WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST AS IT CHURNS OFFSHORE
TO THE EAST. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AND EXPAND NORTHWARD ALONG THE
VIRGINIA COAST THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE
ALSO LIKELY FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST, AND ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH LARGE
WAVES LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND OVERWASH, AND SOME
ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSIBLE. IN ADDITION, LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENTS REMAIN A SERIOUS CONCERN MORE BROADLY ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. BEACHGOERS SHOULD FOLLOW ADVICE FROM LIFEGUARDS, LOCAL
AUTHORITIES, AND BEACH WARNING FLAGS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S.
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND SLOW-MOVING, CLUSTERING STORMS IN VICINITY
OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE GULF COAST AND WEST INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL
TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY INTO FRIDAY, WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS, SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA AND ALONG
THE GULF COAST. ADDITIONAL INSTANCES OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
CAN BE EXPECTED. A MORE FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF POOLING MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GEORGIA EAST INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA HAS
PROMPTED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) FOR MORE
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. FURTHER WEST, ELEVATED
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNERS REGION
THURSDAY AND EXPAND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FRIDAY. LOCALLY
INTENSE DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2" OF RAIN WHICH MAY
LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY FOR MORE
SENSITIVE AREAS SUCH AS ALONG STEEP TERRAIN, BURN SCARS, AND URBAN
AREAS. ELSEWHERE, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST WEST THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS A BIT
EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY, WITH STORM CHANCES SPREADING
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE CONTINUING FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST
WEST THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE
OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL HIGH.
WIDESPREAD HEAT-RELATED WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
ACROSS MUCH OF INLAND CALIFORNIA/OREGON AND NEVADA AS HIGHS CLIMB
INTO THE 90S AND 100S, AND ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS HIGHS
CLIMB INTO THE 110S. THIS DANGEROUS LEVEL OF HEAT WILL POSE A
THREAT TO ANYONE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING AND ADEQUATE HYDRATION.
HIGHS INTO THE 90S MORE BROADLY ACROSS THE WEST WILL STILL POSE A
THREAT TO ANYONE MORE SENSITIVE TO HEAT OR ENGAGING IN STRENUOUS
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. ELSEWHERE, ANOTHER DAY OF HOT, ABOVE AVERAGE
CONDITIONS INTO THE 90S IS EXPECTED THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER, BELOW
AVERAGE CONDITIONS MAINLY IN THE 70S SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY. THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. HAS LEFT
GENERALLY SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH
90S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERN PLAINS, 80S FOR THE MIDWEST,
AND 70S INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW AVERAGE THURSDAY FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S, BEFORE MORE SEASONABLE HIGHS INTO THE 80S RETURN FRIDAY.
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