408
FXUS01 KWBC 232000
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2025
VALID 00Z SUN AUG 24 2025 - 00Z TUE AUG 26 2025
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST, THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND THE SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS, CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, AND GREAT
BASIN ON SUNDAY...
...THERE ARE EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND JUST INLAND...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND THEN TO THE GULF COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AND RAIN IN PARTS OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY, AND THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY.
A SECOND FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN MOVE OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE BOUNDARY
WILL IGNITE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND ALONG
MOST OF THE GULF COAST, WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SUNDAY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL PRIMARILY CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND
LOW-LYING AREAS BEING THE MOST VULNERABLE. MOREOVER, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, THE SOUTHEAST, AND ALONG PARTS OF
THE GULF COAST ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG PARTS OF THE GULF
COAST ON MONDAY.
IN ADDITION, MONSOONAL MOISTURE, DIURNAL HEATING, AND UPPER-LEVEL
IMPULSES WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, THE SOUTHWEST, THE GREAT BASIN, THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND A SECOND AREA OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AS WELL AS
THE SOUTHWEST, THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN
WILL PRIMARILY CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH
URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS BEING THE
MOST VULNERABLE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, THE SOUTHWEST, THE GREAT BASIN, THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS, A SECOND OVER THE PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN, AND A THIRD
OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE
WPC HAS ISSUED MULTIPLE AREAS FOR SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS, GREAT BASIN,
AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL PRIMARILY CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND
LOW-LYING AREAS BEING THE MOST VULNERABLE.
FOR MONDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF OREGON, INTERIOR CALIFORNIA, THE GREAT BASIN, THE
SOUTHWEST, AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AS WELL AS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY. THEREFORE, THE WPC
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAIN WILL PRIMARILY CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH
URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS BEING THE
MOST VULNERABLE.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH HEAVY RAIN ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING
AREAS BEING THE MOST VULNERABLE.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL AID IN CREATING A HEAT WAVE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE MOST
INTENSE AND LONG-LASTING HEAT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE IN
EFFECT FROM PORTIONS OF ARIZONA THROUGH WASHINGTON STATE. THIS
TYPE OF HEAT WILL BE DANGEROUS, POSING A THREAT TO ANYONE WITHOUT
EFFECTIVE COOLING AND ADEQUATE HYDRATION. NUMEROUS DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO BE BROKEN. FOR MANY AREAS, THERE
WILL BE LITTLE NIGHTTIME RELIEF FROM THE EXTREME HEAT, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. NUMEROUS NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE LIKELY. EXTREME HEAT IS DANGEROUS EVEN AT
NIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES DO NOT COOL DOWN. WITHOUT AIR CONDITIONING
OR COOLING, THE BODY CANNOT RECOVER, INCREASING THE RISK OF
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES.
STAY INFORMED AND TAKE STEPS TO PROTECT YOURSELF FROM HEAT-RELATED
ILLNESSES. FOR INFORMATION ON STAYING COOL AND SAFE, VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY/HEAT. AS TEMPERATURES RISE, LIMIT OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY, STAY HYDRATED, AND ENSURE ACCESS TO AIR-CONDITIONING AND
OTHER COOLING AREAS.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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