622
FXUS01 KWBC 252005
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2025
VALID 00Z TUE AUG 26 2025 - 00Z THU AUG 28 2025
...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LOCALLY HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY...
...ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF COLORADO, KANSAS, OKLAHOMA, AND ARKANSAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...
...THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL REMAIN HOT INTO TUESDAY AS COOL
CONDITIONS OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S....
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, MONSOONAL MOISTURE, DIURNAL HEATING, AND
UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WEST. SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH
FLOODING EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND
IDAHO/SOUTHWEST MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL NORTH OF A FRONT WILL DEVELOP AT TIMES OVER PARTS
OF COLORADO, OKLAHOMA, KANSAS, AND ARKANSAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DEPICTED OVER PORTIONS OF
THESE AREAS. HOURLY AMOUNTS AS MUCH AS 2.5" WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC
IN URBAN AREAS. SWATHS OF HEAVY RAIN EACH DAY ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SOIL SATURATION OVER TIME, MAKING AREAS INCREASINGLY
SENSITIVE TO FURTHER HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR THE WEST, THE MAIN
CONCERN IS FLOODING OF DRY WASHES/ARROYOS, URBAN AREAS, BURN
SCARS, AND BOX CANYONS DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE MOST ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH.
MEANWHILE, WARM CORE RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WILL AID AND
ABET A HEAT WAVE ACROSS NORTHWEST CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
LOSING ITS GRIP ON WEDNESDAY. DAILY RECORD HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE CHALLENGED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES SOAR TO NEAR 100F
AT THE HOTTEST LOCATIONS. THIS HEAT WILL BE DANGEROUS, POSING A
THREAT TO ANYONE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING AND ADEQUATE HYDRATION.
IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE LITTLE NIGHTTIME RELIEF FROM THE
EXTREME HEAT, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
EXTREME HEAT IS DANGEROUS EVEN AT NIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES DO NOT
COOL DOWN. STAY INFORMED AND TAKE STEPS TO PROTECT YOURSELF FROM
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES. FOR INFORMATION ON STAYING COOL AND SAFE,
VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY/HEAT. AS TEMPERATURES RISE, LIMIT
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY, STAY HYDRATED, AND ENSURE ACCESS TO
AIR-CONDITIONING AND OTHER COOLING AREAS.
MEANWHILE, EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND NORTH OF THE GULF COAST, LARGE
SWATHS OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, WITH
TEMPERATURES MORE REMINISCENT OF EARLY FALL THAN LATE SUMMER UNDER
THE AEGIS OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (BY AUGUST STANDARDS). COOL TO
COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FROM THE GULF COAST
NORTHWARD, WITH RESPLENDENT SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST, APPALACHIANS, AND MUCH OF THE EAST. IN FACT,
TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL
U.S. WILL THREATEN LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FROM ACROSS THE MIDWEST
TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AS WELL AS THE MID-SOUTH FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS AT LEAST. IN AREAS WITH RAIN, SUCH AS
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA, THE ARKLATEX AND RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE SOUTH ON
TUESDAY, AND INTO KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY, HIGHS MAY ONLY REACH INTO
THE 60S AND 70S THREATENING RECORD COLD MAXIMA FOR THE DATES.
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL EVEN ADD INSTABILITY TO THE COOL AIR MASS, TRIGGERING
LAKE-EFFECT AND LAKE-ENHANCED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE VICINITY THROUGH TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, THESE INSTABILITY
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TRIGGERED FARTHER EAST
ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE UPPER
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH. MEANWHILE, SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DIPPING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
KONG/ROTH
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