959
FXUS01 KWBC 031940
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
339 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2025
VALID 00Z THU SEP 04 2025 - 00Z SAT SEP 06 2025
...A SERIES OF STRONG COLD FRONTS WILL BRING INCREASINGLY COOLER
AIR TO THE CENTRAL U.S. ALONG WITH THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...
...DEEP MOISTURE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...MONSOONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE...
...SIGNIFICANT HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE INTERIOR PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, UPPER MIDWEST, AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY, AND THE MIDWEST THURSDAY, USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS
IN ITS WAKE. BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ROUGHLY
15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW EARLY SEPTEMBER AVERAGES, TOPPING OUT ONLY
IN THE 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA, THE 50S AND 60S FOR THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS, AND LOW 70S INTO THE
MIDWEST. SOME NEAR RECORD-TYING/BREAKING LOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 30S, WITH 40S AND 50S GENERALLY
ELSEWHERE. IN ADDITION TO BRINGING UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR INTO
THE REGION, THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO KICK OFF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES THROUGH, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY
LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS, THOUGH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ISN'T RULED OUT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS, INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. BUILDING WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER RISK OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, YET ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, USHERING IN A REINFORCING
BLAST OF UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR ACROSS THE REGION, WITH HIGHS
FALLING INTO MAINLY THE 60S ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY FRIDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY, THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT, AND
FROM THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY. IN CONTRAST TO THE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH, SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH WILL EXPAND ACROSS
TEXAS THURSDAY AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY, WITH
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 90S AND EVEN LOW 100S.
FARTHER SOUTH, DEEP MOISTURE POOLED ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE IN PLACE, ANY CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR OF SOUTH FLORIDA. LOCALLY MORE
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS
FOR MULTIPLE DAYS.
WEST OF THE ROCKIES, STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASING
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR DAILY SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, AND EXPANDING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTAIN
BURSTS OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING IN MORE VULNERABLE PLACES LIKE SLOT CANYONS,
ARROYOS, STEEP TERRAIN, BURN SCARS, ETC. A MORE CONCENTRATED
THREAT OF SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND ESPECIALLY INTO THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ARIZONA AS INCREASING MOISTURE ARRIVES AHEAD OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY
HURRICANE LORENA OVER THE PACIFIC. UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE
FORECAST TRACK OF THE STORM PRECLUDES A SIMILAR RISK ON FRIDAY FOR
NOW, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND
SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO COULD SEE ANOTHER MORE CONCENTRATED THREAT
OF SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING.
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, A SIGNIFICANT
LATE SEASON HEAT WAVE CONTINUES AS A RIDGE OF UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
CLIMBING INTO THE 90S AND 100S TODAY AND ARE FORECAST TO AGAIN ON
THURSDAY, WHICH WILL LIKELY CHALLENGE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS AND COULD EVEN THREATEN MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS.
AS A RESULT OF THE UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER, EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS
AND HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OREGON,
EASTERN WASHINGTON, NORTHERN IDAHO AND NORTHWEST MONTANA. THE
INTENSITY OF THE HEAT WILL BEGIN TO COME DOWN A BIT ON FRIDAY AS
HIGHS FALL A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.
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