728
FXUS01 KWBC 042030
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
429 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2025
VALID 00Z FRI SEP 05 2025 - 00Z SUN SEP 07 2025
...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
VALLEYS TO NEW ENGLAND
...MOISTURE FROM LORENA TO ENHANCE THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON AND
CONTINUE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING...
... A COLD EARLY SEPTEMBER AIR MASS MAY BRING DAILY RECORD COOL
AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES...
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SWEEPING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY.
WINDS MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 50 MPH WITH THIS DEEPENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE STRONG COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO MARCH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, REACHING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS AND THE NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOL MORNING LOW AND MAX TEMPERATURES. IN
THE SOUTHWEST, THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS WILL TRANSPORT
MOISTURE FROM LORENA NORTHEASTWARD FROM MEXICO TOWARDS ARIZONA,
NEW MEXICO, AND TEXAS BY LATE WEEKEND. OPPRESSIVE HEAT ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO LESSEN BY SATURDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL
RIPWATSDGING BEGINS TO RETREAT. FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
INTERACTS WITH A TROPICAL AIR MASS.
ADDRESSING SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS, A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BRING
THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AS
WELL AS THE APPALACHIANS FOR TOMORROW. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK AS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY ENABLE
ORGANIZED LINES OF STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS
SOME ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PROGRESS
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY AND MAY CONTINUE TO
BRING THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.
WEST OF THE ROCKIES, MONSOONAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG
SURFACE HEATING WILL LEAD TO THE DAILY THREAT OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE WILL
SURGE FARTHER NORTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, PARTIALLY ATTRIBUTED TO
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARDS FROM T.S. LORENA, AND EXPAND THE
RISK OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTAIN
BURSTS OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING IN MORE VULNERABLE PLACES LIKE SLOT CANYONS,
ARROYOS, STEEP TERRAIN, BURN SCARS, ETC. A MORE CONCENTRATED
THREAT OF SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH LORENA WILL PUSH PWATS NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND CAUSE
RAINFALL OVER SATURATED SOILS WITH LOWER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE, WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR
FRIDAY. TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD ON SUNDAY, THERE
IS MORE UNCERTAINTY ON THE POTENTIAL ENHANCED RAINFALL THREAT
ACROSS WEST TEXAS. STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST. ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY BE FOUND ACROSS UPSTATE NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WITH
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE DRY SOILS SHOULD
MOSTLY MAKE THIS RAIN BENEFICIAL WITH ONLY VERY ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE IN SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS. ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
FLORIDA, A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SERVE AS AN
ABUNDANT SOURCE FOR ENHANCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE
FLOODING THREAT IS OVERALL VERY MARGINAL. PONDING WATER APPEARS
THE MOST LIKELY EXTENT OF ANY FLOODING THAT DOES OCCUR.
PERHAPS THE MOST GRIPPING STORY LINE IS YET ANOTHER COLD BLAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. NUMEROUS SITES MAY BREAK DAILY
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S AND LOW 60S THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA TO THE UPPER
40S AS FAR SOUTH AS THE OHIO VALLEY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT PASSES. COLD TEMPERATURES MAY BE HARMFUL TO VEGETATION AND
UNPROTECTED CROPS FOR THOSE WHO SEE MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE 30S. THIS AIR MASS IS ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
WILDER/MILLER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page